National median income levels increased slightly and poverty rates held steady between 2012 and 2013, according to recently released U.S. Census Bureau figures. But income inequality ticked up, meaning the gap between rich and poor grew a little bigger.
Statistics were less conclusive for Vermont, where the margins of error were big enough to render each finding moot.
But if the estimates are on target, they show the state’s annual median income declined about 2 percent, that statewide poverty increased by 3,000 people, and income inequality spread a little wider.
The latest American Community Survey one-year statistics, released Thursday, are calculated from a survey that asks a representative sample of households questions very similar to those found in the 10 year census. Because the annual surveys sample the country’s population, rather than measure it comprehensively, the results are not exact.
Even accounting for the margin of error, the statistics are telling. In 2013, between 68,785 and 79,331 people in Vermont lived below the official federal poverty level. That’s 11.4 percent to 13.2 percent of the population, up from 11 percent to 12.6 percent the year before, according to tables from the American Community Survey poverty brief.
The American Community Survey, like the 10-year census, is used by policy makers, businesses, academics and social activists alike to inform decisions.
It’s also used by political candidates as campaign fodder.
Republican gubernatorial challenger Scott Milne on Thursday seized on the data to criticize incumbent Gov. Peter Shumlin.
“This is another clear indication that the unemployment rate Mr. Shumlin continues to brag about does not tell the full story; things are not getting better in Vermont, they are getting worse,” Milne said.
In public appearances, Shumlin frequently goes out of his way to cite Vermont’s top ranking among states with the lowest unemployment rates. In March, Vermont’s unemployment rate was 3.4 percent and second only to North Dakota at 2.6 percent. The state’s unemployment rate has inched up since then, reaching 4.1 percent in August.
“It seems almost impersonal to look at cold, hard numbers like this, but the bottom line is more than 1 in 10 of our neighbors and their children are living in poverty. And there are many more who don’t officially qualify but aren’t doing so well, either,” Milne said.
FACT CHECK
Milne correctly cited aspects of the most recent ACS statistics for Vermont, but did not acknowledge the substantial margins of error. This eroded the accuracy of his statements in two of three instances.
The ACS estimate that median income in Vermont fell by 2 percent from 2012 to 2013 comes with a 3.7 percent margin of error.
The claim that the number of people living in poverty in Vermont increased by 3,000 between 2012 and 2013 is a rounded number. The specific ACS estimate was 2,974, with a margin of error of 6,964.
Milne said more than 10 percent of Vermont’s population officially lives in poverty, which is true regardless of the margins of error. The total population of the state was approximately 626,630 in 2013; the most conservative estimate of those living in poverty was 68,785, so Vermont’s poverty rate was at least 11 percent.
In his statement, Milne did not address income inequality. The ACS estimates income inequality on a scale of zero to one — zero representing a proportional distribution of income and one indicating perfect inequality, where one household has all the income and all others have no income. The measurement increased an estimated 0.015 points between 2012 and 2013. But a margin of error of the same size means there could have been either no change at all, or twice as much.