Corry Bliss, Dubie's campaign manager. Photo by Terry J. Allen

In Vermont’s just-concluded election for governor, “most ethically challenged” became a campaign mantra for Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie’s effort to paint ultimate winner, Democratic state Sen. Peter Shumlin, as untrustworthy. Compiled by VTdigger.org, via Internet search-engine Google, here is a representative sample of the war of words that coursed through Vermont’s political bloodstream from early-March to the Nov. 2 election, in print, press releases, the Internet and over the airwaves.

March 8, 2010. Fox Business Channel airs an interview with Democratic candidate for governor Peter Shumlin in which he mistakenly asserts Germany gets 30 percent of its electricity from solar power.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4087852/lawmaker-on-closing-nuclear-plant/?playlist_id=87053

March 12. “Yes Vermont Yankee,” a Web site advocating relicensing of the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant, posts a critical commentary and video of Shumlin’s Fox Business interview. Other critics soon begin to characterize Shumlin’s solar-power gaffe as a “lie.”
http://yesvy.blogspot.com/2010/03/shumlin-overstates-himself.html

March 13. VermontTiger.com, a self-described “free-market” blog, takes Shumlin to task for the error.
http://www.vermonttiger.com/content/2010/03/bad-infomation.html

March 15. The “energy collective,” a pro-business and pro-nuclear Web blog, reports Shumlin’s Fox Business appearance under the headline: “Vermont Senate President Peter Shumlin Caught Lying to the American People on Fox News.” (In fact, Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie is the Senate president; Shumlin is Senate President Pro-Tem.

March 17. Bob Audette, of the Brattleboro Reformer, reports Shumlin’s lengthy explanation of his Fox Business Channel comments after he gets a cascade of criticism for it.

March 17. A 7Days news story by reporter Andy Bromage reports the outcome of the weekly newspaper’s survey of Vermont legislators, lobbyists, and statehouse staffers and reporters, noting the lawmaker to get the most votes as “most ethically challenged” was Senate President Pro-tem Peter Shumlin. (The surveys sent out were returned by only 30 of the 400-person sample. A total of 12 of those 30 respondents checked off the “most ethically challenged” box for Shumlin.)
http://www.7dvt.com/2010legislative-survey

March 19, In a second article, after the first of many anti-Shumlin attack-ads appears based on the survey, reporter Andy Bromage defends 7Day’s decision to publish the survey. In the comments box following this story, 7Days co-publisher Paula Routly also defends publication, despite the low response rate.
http://7d.blogs.com/blurt/2010/03/national-governors-association-fires-on-shumlin-using-7d-survey.html

March 22. Burlington Free Press Statehouse reporter Terri Hallenbeck reports in vt.Buzz, the Free Press blog, Shumlin’s error about Germany’s solar power usage and his explanation for his misstatements.
http://bfp-poltics.blogspot.com/2010/03/shumlin-out-foxed.html

June 23. 7Days publishes a lengthy Shumlin profile entitled “Peter Principled?” in which they leave out the context that the survey had a paltry response rate, leaving the reader to link back to an earlier story containing that context, or, for those who did not link back, with the impression the survey could be one of several indicators of Shumlin’s poor ethical character.
http://www.7dvt.com/2010peter-principled

Sept. 20. Kate Duffy of Brian Dubie’s campaign issues a press release and video using the 7Days survey as a basis for a sweeping “Shumlin-most-ethically-challenged” attack-ad theme that will continue
throughout the campaign.
http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/20/dubie-releases-new-shumlin-ethically-challenged-ad/shumlin-using-7d-survey.html

Sept. 29. Republican Governors Association TV ad also uses 7Days survey as basis for “most-ethically-challenged” label
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_S_ix34rrc

Oct. 6. Vermont Public Radio’s Mitch Wertlieb interviews Paula Routly of 7Days and St. Michael’s College journalism professor David Mindich on the “most-ethically-challenged” controversy. Routly staunchly defends publication of the survey. Mindich calls it “a fun, lighthearted survey…not scientific” but “definitely with room for manipulation…which 7Days acknowledged.”
http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/88943/

Oct. 6. Front-page blogger Jack McCullough at Green Mountain Daily.com, a staunchly pro-Democrat/progressive Web site, blisters Routly on the basis of that interview.
http://greenmountaindaily.com/diary/6892/paula-routly-cant-be-that-stupid

Oct. 7. Front-page Green Mountain Daily blogger Julie Waters points to contextual and statistical lapses in 7Days’ followup coverage of the survey controversy.
http://greenmountaindaily.com/diary/6894/basic-statistical-literacy-or-lack-thereof

Oct. 11. Blogger Jon Margolis, Vermont News Guy, provides some context for the subject of ethically challenged politicians and the Shumlin controversy. http://www.vermontnewsguy.com/ethical-quandary

Oct. 21. Shumlin campaign launches strong counter attack on the “most-ethically-challenged” allegations.
http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/21/shumlin-dubie-has-launched-most-negative-campaign-vermont-has-ever-seen/

Oct. 22. In Vermont Public Radio interview, state Sen. Dick Mazza, a moderate Democrat, tells reporter John Dillon some legislators he knew who filled out the 7Days survey treated it as a “joke.”
http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/89081/

Oct. 23. Norwich, Vt. direct mail copywriter Josh Manheimer, posts the video “When Pigs Fly” on his youtube channel, anyonebutdubie, ridiculing Dubie’s most-ethically-challenged claims against Shumlin and questioning Dubie’s temperament.
http://www.youtube.com/user/AnyoneButDubie

Oct. 23. Burlington Free Press reporter Nancy Remsen reports on Shumlin and Dubie’s last televised debate on WCAX, during which Dubie stands by his “ethically-challenged” charge and again cites the 7Days survey as proof.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2010101023021

Oct. 23. Controversy goes national with David Gram’s AP report of the WCAX debate.
http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=213&sid=2070990

Oct. 25. VTdigger.org’s Anne Galloway posts her investigative roundup of all the most questionable campaign tactics both campaigns have employed, including the widely circulated link to the Dubie campaign’s Web list of “Peter Shumlin’s Top Ethical lapses,” which includes the 7Days survey findings.

Oct. 27. In a Mark Johnson WDEV radio interview, columnist and reporter Shay Totten of 7Days defends publication of the survey, repeating co-publisher Routly’s argument that its coverage contained adequate context for readers, and newspapers can’t be held responsible for how politicians use news stories for their own ends.
http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/10/28/102710-totten-pt-2.aspx

Oct. 29. Jerry Skapof of Manchester Center, in a strongly-worded letter to the editor of the Bennington Banner, deplores Dubie’s most-ethically-challenged attack on Shumlin, saying it has tarnished Dubie’s “nice-guy” image.

Oct. 29. Dave Gram’s AP account of a libel suit filed by a Vermont businessman against the Dubie campaign and its manager, Corry Bliss, (involving a different matter) lands on Bloomberg’s Businesweek Web site and others. The article also mentions the Dubie campaign’s list of Shumlin’s 11 “most ethical lapses.”
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9J5K29O0.htm

VTDigger

Before you dial 911 and inform the dispatcher I’ve stopped taking my medication again, let me tell you why I may have just elected Vermont’s next governor.

You see, during the recent gubernatorial race, I became alarmed early on that the GOP candidate, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, had hired a professional communications firm from Texas at the same time that he was running on the platform, “I will bring jobs to Vermont.”

This struck me as strange. “Why couldn’t the guy hire someone in Vermont to create his Web site? Heck, I could use the work.”

When I dug a little deeper, I became even more wary. Brian Dubie’s Texas communications firm, Harris Media, proudly displayed on their website a gallery of attack videos and smear Web sites like notches on a gun belt. These guys were the SS Panzer Division of political operatives whose sole purpose was to demonize Democratic candidates. Who did the Dems have to fight back against such a formidable foe? (At this point in time, the Dems didn’t even have a candidate as the primary results were still being recounted.)

These guys — Harris Media — were the SS Panzer Division of political operatives whose sole purpose was to demonize Democratic candidates.

I looked around. Who was the @#$%&! in Vermont equal to these mud slingers in Texas? Only one face stared back at me from the mirror before it cracked. I would have to dip my hands into the dark detritus-filled waters and create political satire and advertisements so brilliant, so biting, it would outmatch anything the Texas warlocks and witches could conjure. And I would have no support — emotional or financial — from any candidate or campaign.

Download the AnyoneButDubie Results Chart

Now as it turned out, there are some advantages to being a loose political cannon in Vermont; it meant I had minimal disclosure requirements with the state’s Campaign Finance Office and no limit on the amount I could spend on advertising. While the candidates were noisily trying to raise money and outmaneuver each other with TV spots, I was filed away in some bureaucrat’s drawer as a solo electronic “pamphleteer” and ignored.

My first instinct was to operate anonymously under the pseudonym, AnyoneButDubie, but faster than you could say, Karl Rove, I was flushed out of hiding by the enterprising journalist at vtdigger.org, Anne Galloway. Further, the state’s attorney decided that I had to attach my name to each video along with my address for public disclosure. (The irony that billionaires could remain hidden behind their PACs while I had to reveal the GPS coordinates of my farmhouse along with the thread count of my cotton Percale sheets did not escape me.)

Over the next two months, following the contours of the campaign, I created about a dozen videos, matching Harris Media attack for attack and — boy! — did Dubie’s Texans go on the offensive like hornets in the wrong hive, challenging the Democratic candidate’s ethics at every turn, and claiming he would get out a hacksaw and terrorize Vermont by releasing 780 dangerous felons from prison.

You can find my responses on Youtube here — http://www.youtube.com/user/AnyoneButDubie — along with this battle cry:

Sure. I wish AnyoneButDubie didn’t have to exist. And I wish butterflies would land on my face each morning and wake me with the flutter of their wings.

But there needs to be a level playing field, and once Vermont’s Lt. Gov., Brian Dubie, hired Harris Media in Austin, Texas — a communications firm that specializes in attacking Democrats with emotionally charged, incendiary ads — he set the bar pretty low.

I mean, watch Dubie waving his list of felons in the air … a list which turned out to be pure fiction. How do you combat this kind of disingenuous nonsense from Vermont’s second highest ranking elected official?

Some political dissidents around the world fight back against a repressive regime with theater. I have chosen to rev up my Mac and use Youtube to expose Brian Dubie for the pusillanimous pismire that he is.

Now Dubie’s political operatives back in Texas are not dumb. They know Democrats lean towards incertitude and will too easily turn against each other in a kind of circular firing squad at the slightest provocation. So one of their strategies is to weaken Democratic resolve by lobbing into the crowd a Grenade of Doubt that questions the very battle itself — watch for editorials that beg us all to be nice — and whose real goal is to keep disenchanted Vermonters from voting — the very people who need to fight back vociferously against Republican lies and distortions.

Some political dissidents around the world fight back against a repressive regime with theater. I have chosen to rev up my Mac and use Youtube to expose Brian Dubie for the pusillanimous pismire that he is.

Of course, if you buy into it, you’re playing right into Republican hands. Because regardless of what is said, the Republican attack machine from Texas will do whatever is necessary to win and hold onto the levers of power. Vermont is just one small, annoying pebble in their overall goal — to redistrict the country and regain the Presidency.

Right now, Dubie’s slick, bow tie wearing operatives from Austin are not scared of AnyoneButDubie because they know our reach is checked by the paltry limit of my pitiful credit card. But do you know what will make them lose sleep at night? The idea that Vermonters might discover their FORWARD TO A FRIEND button, causing our videos to go viral, and Everyone In Vermont watches Anyone But Dubie — for free!

Now that’s a Texas-size nightmare that can make a Republican political consultant’s bow tie spin around like a pinwheel and propel the Democrats to win the election in November.

The end result? The Democratic candidate, Peter Shumlin, won the election in a squeaker by a slim 4,331 votes — one of the few bright blue spots in a bloody sea of Republican red that election night.

Is it possible my Youtube videos, coordinated with a robust Google and Facebook ad campaign, had something to do with the narrow Democratic victory?

Attached is a spreadsheet of my most effective online ads. I spent about $3,600, generating 1,600,000 media impressions and 6,000 click-throughs. The Google campaign ran for about two months; the Facebook campaign for about a week.

My buxom Dubie Girl, who pissed off a lot of people because it appeared I was a sexist insensitive jerk, was my best performing display ad for much of the campaign, garnering a sweet 5% click through rate early on. All told, at 330×250 pixels, she achieved 1,655 clicks and 83,183 impressions. The best text ad in terms of impressions was, “Dubie Wants To Work Less. Lie In Tanning Booth More. Watch.” which achieved 109,340 impressions and 132 clicks.

The ads were targeted throughout Vermont and, on occasion, aimed directly at the Harris Media office building in Austin, Texas — the theory being that maybe the Dubie operatives inside would get pissed off, misjudge the tenor and tone of the Vermont electorate, perhaps even believe I was really part of the Shumlin campaign — I had no communication with Peter Shumlin or his senior advisors — and overreach by retaliating with full guns blazing.

Did this whole Vermont vs. Texas, David vs. Goliath, smack down work?

“Well,” as I say in my best Southern voiceover twang on my videos, “Why don’t you take a look and decide for yourself.”

http://www.youtube.com/user/AnyoneButDubie

VTDigger

Shumlin. Photo by Terry J. Allen

Editor’s note: This story is by Patrick Joy, a freelance writer who lives in Montpelier. More detail and video will be added on Wednesday.

UPDATE: As of 8:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, WCAX reported the vote count: Shumlin, 114,097 votes; Dubie, 110,543, with 95.6 percent of precincts reporting.

Republican faithful filed out of the Capitol Plaza Hotel after midnight, their party over but the largest race too close to officially call.

While Democrat Peter Shumlin held a 4,494 vote lead with 94.4% of precincts reporting, according to WCAX News, Republican candidate Brian Dubie left without a concession and Shumlin did not declare victory.

Shumlin, however, appeared poised to take the state’s top job and looked likely to surpass the 50% threshold to keep the race out of the legislature.

Dubie addressed his supporters just before midnight, and said the race was too close to call.

“I’m not here to declare victory – but to say thank you and express gratitude and appreciation to the people who contributed to this positive campaign,” he said.

Republican energy at the GOP party at the GOP headquarters rose and fell all night with the steady stream of poll numbers rolling in from news sources.

Dubie built an early lead, but Shumlin closed steadily as southern Vermont numbers trickled in. Anxious members of the party faithful wondered aloud whether Dubie could get enough independents to hold on, or whether Democratic turnout might be low enough to carry the day. For an hour, the lead traded back and forth with every update, often by only a handful of votes. Cheers went up every time Dubie was ahead, while Shumlin leads were met with frowns and boos.

Dubie, center, talks with a reporter

Supporters moved back and forth between the TV screens at the head of the room and the mobile station at the WCAX press table.

The crowd swelled to more than 300 just before Dubie spoke, and emptied steadily as the numbers slowed.

Dubie said he thought his message of economic solutions for a troubled economy resonated with voters.

“Vermonters are looking for solutions,” he said. “We are losing too many young Vermonters. We have been focused on a 10-point jobs plan.”

Dubie said he hoped to return to the podium later in the night, but apparently left for his home in Essex sometime just after midnight.

State Senator Phil Scott, R-Montpelier, said he had faith Dubie would prevail.

“I think he’ll pull this one out of the trenches,” he said.

Gov. James Douglas said there was nothing to do but wait.

“I talked with [Brian] earlier today and told him that there was nothing he could do [since the votes had been cast],” Douglas said.

Douglas carried that message with him to the podium.

“I am darn proud of him,” said Douglas. “Now, we’ll just keep biting our fingernails.”

VTDigger

Vice President Joe Biden, left, with Peter Shumlin, the Democratic candidate for Vermont governor

Editor’s note: This op-ed is by Sandy Dooley, who lives in South Burlington, where she is vice chair of the city council. An MSW-trained social worker who retired this past January, her career included direct services, teaching, survey research, and social welfare and public health administration and policy.

An hour waiting outside in alternating snow showers and cold, drizzling rain tests one’s resolve to see and hear our vice president, Joseph Biden. Upon entry into the Patrick Gymnasium’s tennis complex, I see this is truly a standing room only event as there are no chairs, with the exception of the special area for the VIPs and a few seats for frail elderly attendees. Still, I am charmed by the seven Lawrence Barnes School sixth-graders who sit excitedly on the floor awaiting the Big Event.

The goal is firing up the crowd to vote for Democratic candidates–HIGH TURNOUT IS GOOD FOR THE DEMS–and the means is the Stump Speech. Sen. Bernie Sanders, once again, proves that he ranks among the best in this genre and Vice President Biden is clearly right up there with our guy Bernie. And while those two have had decades to hone their skills, gubernatorial candidate Peter Shumlin shows promise of becoming a major leaguer in such endeavors.

Theirs is a message of absolutes and contrasts and unabashed appeal to the visceral.

Bernie tells us about “Wall Street’s greed, recklessness, and illegal behavior” and how our Republican opponents are the champions of Wall Street. But (Bernie says) “Peter Shumlin understands that Vermont can be a model for America” in enacting Medicare for all, via a single payer health care system.

Peter Shumlin gets to his points expeditiously. They are: jobs, universal broadband access by 2013, and education, especially more investment in early childhood education.

The vice president, who is greeted by hundreds of the faithful waving “Vermonters Heart Symbol (Love) Joe” banners, tells us “this is an election about competing visions” and “today’s Republicans are not your parents’ Republicans.” He later adds that they are not (Senator) Bob Stafford or (Senator) George Aiken Republicans, either.

According to “Joe,” Democrats in control in Washington means moving forward with the Obama policies of creating jobs, building a future that has as its foundation sustainable energy, reforming the financial system, fine-tuning the health care law, and education reform. If the Republicans win, we are back to the failed policies of George W. Bush, he says.

Joe exhorts us to “Go go out and vote tomorrow and get three others who will vote for Democrats to the polls, also.” Go forth and do good.

The music begins. Vice President Biden and Shumlin enter the crowd for hand-shaking and politicking. I am energized. There is something irreplaceable about in-person political events no matter how constrained they are by today’s security requirements. The mundane act of voting today will mean more to me because of this experience.

VTDigger

Peter Shumlin, left, and Brian Dubie at a Bennington debate, Sept. 23, 2010

Rasmussen Reports issued a poll on Sunday that puts Sen. Peter Shumlin, the Democrat, ahead of Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, the Republican — though not by much. Fifty percent of respondents said they would vote for Shumlin; 45 percent would back Dubie. The margin of error for the survey, which was conducted late last week, is 4 percent.

A second aggregated poll analysis, just released by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com for The New York Times, also has Shumlin increasing his narrow lead.

Rasmussen declared that the Shumlin-Dubie race is no longer a toss-up; the pollster says the election is leaning Democrat. Political analysts say the pollster trends conservative. See related story.

Of the 750 likely voters polled, 3 percent were undecided; 1 percent said they would vote for independent candidates.

Shumlin leads Dubie in early balloting, 56 percent to 38 percent. According to Bob Kinzel of Vermont Public Radio, a quarter of eligible voters have already cast early ballots.

In the last Rasmussen poll, taken after the primary in September, Shumlin had a 49 percent to 46 percent advantage over Dubie.

Both candidates have rallied their bases. Dubie has the support of 88 percent of Republicans polled; Shumlin has attracted 83 percent of Democrats. Among independents, the candidates are tied.

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com gives Shumlin 51.1 percent of the vote and Dubie 47 percent in his Oct. 31 aggregated analysis and model, his latest. There is a huge disparity, however in the percent chance of winning for each candidate: Silver gives Shumlin 77.7 percent and Dubie 22.3 percent.

Middlebury College professor emeritus of political science Eric Davis agrees with Silver’s assessment of the vote totals, but disagrees with Silver’s conclusions about percentages for who is most likely to win.

“I admire the work he’s done it’s most valuable in the US House districts,” Davis said.) “But he doesn’t look at the politics on the ground. In the U.S. Senate and governor’s races, where facts on ground matter more, you need contextual knowledge as well.”

On Oct. 11, a Mason-Dixon Polling and Research poll also indicated that Shumlin and Dubie were a hair’s breadth apart.

Forty-four percent of respondents said they would vote for Dubie; 43 percent would cast ballots for Shumlin. The poll, commissioned by VPR, showed that 8 percent of those polled were undecided. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.

In any event, come Tuesday night, the results will be in. If either candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, he will have a clear path to victory. If Dubie or Shumlin both receive less than 50 percent, the Legislature will determine the winner. That’s because under the Vermont Constitution, if candidates for governor receive less than 50 percent of the vote, lawmakers must choose the victor by secret ballot. Of course, there’s also the possibility that there could be a recount.

Davis has come up with his own four potential outcomes for the race. He said there is a 40 percent chance Shumlin will get more than 50 percent of the vote and a 15 percent chance Shumlin will win a plurality but not win outright. Davis gives Dubie a 30 percent chance of garnering more than 50 percent; and a 15 percent chance of winning the plurality of the vote, but not getting enough votes to avoid sending the results to the Legislature.

“I think at this point it is coming down to turnout — who has the better ground game organization and who can get out more voters,” Davis said.

Both Dubie and Shumlin campaigned in their base counties, the Northeast Kingdom and Chittenden County respectively on Sunday. Davis says this is a sign they are working hard on their ground strategies.

Chris Graff, former chief of the Vermont bureau of the Associated Press and now an executive with the insurer, National Life, says election night will be a late one.

“The truth is that there is still a high level of uncertainty,” Graff said. “I am continually amazed at news articles in which people are quoted and are uncertain about who they will support. At this is the point in the campaign and for about a week or two now. it’s just like the shuttle getting ready for takeoff. At certain point there’s nothing you can do. It’s a matter nobody knows the outcome of this race just like no one knew the outcome of the Democratic primary.”

“I think it’s been a given for a year that the odds favor Peter Shumlin or the Democratic candidate in Vermont,” Graff said. “Brian Dubie has beaten the odds so far. He should have been toast by now, but he’s done it on his own. I won’t be surprised by any outcome.”

Last week, Davis predicted Dubie and Shumlin will each get between 48 percent 49.5 percent of the vote. Typically, he said, the independent candidates together siphon off between 1.5 percent and 2 percent of the ballots cast. Two of the four independent candidates, Ben Mitchell, who was on the Liberty Union ticket, and Em Peyton dropped out of the race last week and gave their support to Shumlin.

Davis also cautioned that the VPR polling results could be slightly off target because only Vermonters with landlines were polled. Cell phone users, which typically trend younger and more Democratic, were not included in the survey. According to the Pew Research Center’s People and the Press, this missed demographic can skew polls away from Dems nationally by 4 percent to 6 percent. Though in Vermont the number of cell phone users isn’t as high, Davis said the Mason-Dixon poll could be slightly depressing Shumlin’s numbers.

Art Woolf, a professor of economics at the University of Vermont and a frequent commenter on the Web blog Vermont Tiger, concluded that voters under 40 are probably under-represented.

Graff said even if neither candidate gets 50 percent of the votes, there will be a great deal of pressure on the Legislature to certify the winner of the plurality.

It has been 34 years since the last time a “non-plurality winner” was selected, according to the Vermont Secretary of State’s Web site. In the 1976 lieutenant governor’s race, lawmakers chose T. Garry Buckley, the Republican, over John Alden, the Democrat. (John Franco also ran as an independent.) The two top vote-getters were 2,854 ballots apart. Alden held the majority, with 48.4 percent; Buckley had 47.6 percent of the vote; Franco 4 percent.

Buckley, according to Graff, lobbied the Legislature and said his phone bill was $2,000 the month before lawmakers cast secret ballots and elected him. The vote in the House was 90 to 87 in the House. “All those phone calls paid off,” Graff said, at least initially. But in 1978, Buckley lost his seat in the primary to Peter Smith, Graff said, because the “GOP feared a backlash … because Buckley usurped the will of the voters.”

Davis said if Dubie has a 1,000-vote lead over Shumlin, it would be hard for the Legislature not to vote for Dubie, but if he is ahead by one-tenth of 1 percent of the votes (between 200 and 300), it would be a free choice for the Legislature. If Dubie is ahead by 700-800 votes, Davis doesn’t know how the Democratic Legislature will vote.

“If Dubie narrowly wins the plurality, he isn’t going to have much good will because of the tone of his ads,” Davis said.

Davis estimates the turnout will be about 60 percent of registered voters, or roughly 275,000 Vermonters. A 1,000-vote difference, or half a percentage point gap between the victor and the loser, would likely trigger a recount, Davis said. The Democratic gubernatorial primary recount went very quickly – the time of the election to the recount was 17 days. A recount could be completed by around Thanksgiving, Davis said.

A recount or an ensuing vote certification in the Legislature would be problematic, Graff said.

“Imagine if it’s up in the air, neither candidate could attract a cabinet … it would paralyze the state when we need a governor-elect planning a budget,” Graff said.

On Thursday morning, Geoff Norman, the publisher of Vermont Tiger, put up a blog post “Deal Us In” alleging that Dick Mazza held a “secret meeting” with Shumlin and a group of 10 or so business leaders in Colchester.
At the gathering in Mazza’s garage, Shumlin supposedly equivocated on his long-held belief that Vermont Yankee should be shut down. Vermont Tiger is a conservative blog that supports the relicensing of the nuclear power plant in Vernon.

Norman’s claim came from an anonymous source.

Just hours later, WPTZ and WCAX ran stories based on the blog post; the reporters – Stewart Ledbetter and Kristin Carlson – couldn’t find anyone who attended the meeting to speak on the record.
http://www.wptz.com/video/25557953/detail.html
http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=13410171

Shay Totten of Seven Days, and Terri Hallenbeck of the Burlington Free Press, also tried to substantiate the claims and came up empty. They reported that Glen Wright and David R. Coates, both retired accountants, were at the meeting, according to Shumlin.

When VTdigger.org reached Glen Wright on Sunday and asked if he would be willing to talk about what he heard Shumlin say that day shortly after the primary in September, he said: “I don’t want to” and hung up the phone.

The only people who have been willing to talk have been: Mazza, who doesn’t recall Yankee coming up in conversation; Dubie, who is now using the allegation in his stump speeches; and Shumlin, who denies he said anything of the sort.

Dubie told supporters in Barre on Saturday: “This campaign is defined by two issues. It’s jobs and it’s trust, and Vermonters want to elect a governor they can trust. And when my opponent puts forth a plan that says he’s going to for the whole campaign (sic), his whole campaign is about closing down Vermont Yankee, and then we hear reports about a closed-door secret meeting, where to a business group there’s another commitment, and then we hear on Vermont Public Radio there’s another message that’s given, Vermonters are wondering which message to trust.”

In an interview, Shumlin said the meeting wasn’t secret – he said it was no different than the visits he’s made with other small groups around the state during the campaign.

The topic of Yankee didn’t come up, he insisted. “It was just like the last thing I was going talk about at Dick Mazza’s garage party, sitting around with 8-10 people getting to know me, was Vermont Yankee,” Shumlin said. “It’s the one thing we (Shumlin and Mazza) disagree on, (so) why would I bring it up? It’s like going to your grandmother’s house who’s a Republican and talking about George Bush. You just avoid it.

“That’s why I kept saying: you guys in the mainstream press, just tell me who said this, who is it?” Shumlin said. “They just pointed to the blog. I said, I know it’s Halloween, I’m chasing after a Dubie ghost here, who is it?”

Shumlin said WCAX has run a string of stories based on press releases from Corry Bliss, Dubie’s campaign manager. Recently, the station ran a piece about Shumlin campaigning at the funeral of Anthony Rosa, a Marine who died in Afghanistan. The story cited one named source who said she thought it was inappropriate of Shumlin, who had been standing next to her, to introduce himself.
http://www.wcax.com/Global/story.asp?S=13391631

Shumlin pointed to the speeding ticket brouhaha as another example.

“It’s WCAX, and when they play it, then everybody does. I mean this is incredible. I got a speeding ticket. I pleaded guilty. I paid it. The headline should be, the only legislator who doesn’t let state cops fix a speeding ticket for him, everyone else gets theirs fixed. Gimme a break. I’m the only one dumb enough to let them do it.”

“Every night it’s a new nontruth, and this one they (WCAX) put on (the Vermont Tiger story) was extraordinary,” Shumlin says. “What are they going to have me doing tomorrow, repealing marriage equality?

Rhetorically, Shumlin asked: “How can anyone question where I stand on Vermont Yankee? I risked my whole career to shut this whole thing down. … I didn’t do it for politics, I did it because it was right. I’ve got to hand it to the Dubie folks; they’re extraordinarily successful at putting up things on blogs that, first of all, never happened and, secondly, that the mainstream press picks up. I’ve never seen anything like it.”

Professor emeritus of political science Eric Davis said the Vermont Tiger blog post fell in the realm of hearsay. He said Geoff Norman is not a journalist, and his blog, like the liberal equivalent, Green Mountain Daily, reflects the interests of his conservative political community.

“The post on Vermont Tiger illustrates the distinction between blogging and professional journalism,” Davis said. “A quote-unquote mainstream news organization would not have published it unless sources were willing to go public with what they heard Peter say.”

Davis said the post was “purely political” and “reflected what Geoff Norman, who would like to see Brian Dubie elected, get another story up there about flipflopping or to get Green activists wondering what is Shumlin really up to.”

Davis said Shumlin didn’t help himself with his responses on TV. Here’s a transcript of the exchange between Carlson and Shumlin on WCAX:

Shumlin: “I think Vermont Yankee should be shut down on schedule in 2012.”
Carlson: “Did you ever tell anyone at any point that if there was a new owner you might be able to support the plant?”

Shumlin: “Not to my knowledge.”

Carlson: “So if you are elected governor we won’t be having a conversation at some point about you thinking Yankee should be relicensed with a new owner?”

Shumlin: “It will be highly unlikely.”

Carlson: “So highly unlikely, but that is not a yes or a no?”

Shumlin: “You know I’m not trying to be evasive. What you have to understand about governors is you have to lead, and you have to deal with the facts we have before us. All the facts before me right now show me Vermont Yankee should be shut down in 2012.”

Davis said sometime later next year Shumlin might have to answer that question if circumstances change. “It’s possible that Shumlin, if elected, would face an offer from a new company,” Davis said.

Energy Daily reported in August that Exelon Corp. and NRG Energy Inc. were potential buyers. (Exelon owns Oyster Creek Generating Station in New Jersey and Braidwood Generating Station in Illinois, both of which have had significant leaks of tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen.)

SGAM, a British business Web site, reported on Oct. 22 that Entergy has “put its 650 MW Vermont Yankee nuclear plant for sale, according to sources. Morgan Stanley has been chosen to run the process, which could fetch about USD 2bln ($2 billion U.S. dollars).”

David O’Brien, commissioner of the Vermont Department of Public Service, told John Dillon, of Vermont Public Radio, new owners could open the door to relicensure of the plant.

“The question then becomes for leadership in Vermont, if there were a sale, and/or a power deal, or the very least these sort of game changers occurring, that could be a great deal for the state. Provided that we’ve satisfied ourselves on safety, is that enough to satisfy Vermont that we can look at Vermont Yankee differently?”

Davis speculated that if a company came back with a rate offer that was less than the 6-cent price for electricity offered by Hydro-Quebec, and promised to fully fund the decommissioning costs, lawmakers and the new governor could authorize relicensure next spring.

“If those things all happened, are there circumstances under which Peter Shumlin would support relicensure for a 10-year period?” Davis asked. “I don’t know.” He said if Shumlin had a new commissioner of DSP who was willing to ride herd on a new owner regarding safety issues, that might make a difference.

In addition to deciding to keep O’Brien on or select a new commissioner, the governor would be responsible for finding a replacement for the chair of the Public Service Board, James Volz, whose term expires on March 1.

The lawyers had a field day last week. Five gubernatorial campaign-related lawsuits were filed in state and federal courts in just five days – starting on Oct. 26.

First the Vermont Attorney General William Sorrell sued two 527 nonprofit organizations — the Republican Governors Association and Green Mountain Future – for failing to register with the secretary of state’s office and report campaign finance reports (the RGA was also sued for accepting donations over the limit set by Vermont law — $2,000). Both groups have run hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of TV advertisements in Vermont on behalf their candidates – Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie (RGA) and Democrat Sen. Peter Shumlin (GMF).

In response, the RGA filed a countersuit, arguing that the AG was attempting to abridge its First Amendment rights.
http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/27/sorrell-527s-act-like-pacs-in-vermont/

Two days later, David Blittersdorf, the CEO of AllEarth Turbines, lodged a libel suit against Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie and his campaign manager for allegedly impugning his character in a press report that appeared in the Burlington Free Press and on a Web site, www.shumlinethics.com.
http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/28/blittersdorf-sues-dubie-and-his-campaign/

The week ended with more litigation from the Dubie camp. According to the Free Press, a lawyer for the lieutenant governor sought an injunction to prevent Attorney General William Sorrell from “raiding” the Dubie campaign headquarters. Sorrell said agents were scheduled to arrive at the offices at 10 a.m. on Friday to retrieve documents for an investigation into alleged collusion between the Dubie campaign and the RGA. The Vermont Democratic Party had filed a complaint with the AG’s office the previous week, asking Sorrell to probe an expenditure for a shared poll. It is illegal under Vermont’s campaign finance law for candidates to coordinate efforts with outside organizations that contribute more than $3,000 to a campaign.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20101029/NEWS03/101029016/AG-disputes-Dubie-s-claims

Sorrell filed a “petition to compel” in Chittenden County Court on Friday. The order directs the Friends of Brian Dubie to comply with a “civil investigation demand.”

Dubie’s attorney, Michael P. Kenney, filed a complaint for injunctive relief with the U.S. District Court in Burlington that alleges Sorrell is acting in a partisan fashion because the Attorney General is on the Democratic ticket along with Shumlin, Dubie’s rival.
“The Defendant bears a heightened burden of justifying his invasion of a political campaign committee’s private associational records,” Kenney wrote. The lawyer deemed the civil investigation demand “vexatious, over broad and a misuse of public resources.” He also called the order “fishing expedition” and claimed it violates Dubie’s First Amendment and due process rights.

http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/campaign_finance_newlimits.html

Will the flurry of lawsuits impact the election? Probably not, according to Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science of Middlebury College. He doesn’t think most voters will care.

“None (of the lawsuits) are going be resolved until well after Election Day,” Davis said. “I think these lawsuits are inside baseball and of interest only to the political community – the campaigns, political
junkies and the press.”

VTDigger

Vermont Governor’s Race

Peter Shumlin (D):

115,222 *

Brian Dubie (R):

111,728

VTDigger

Scott Rasmussen

From Rasmussen Reports

Democrat Peter Shumlin now holds his highest level of support against Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie in the race to be Vermont’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Shumlin, the state Senate president pro tempore, picking up 50%. Dubie draws the vote from 45%. One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The latest numbers move this race from a Toss-Up to Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.