Stockxchng image

Jim Reardon, Vermont’s commissioner of Finance and Management, sent a memo to agency and department heads in October urging them to cut 6 percent of their budgets – in addition to reductions they’ve already made in three previous years of belt-tightening.

That earlier austerity under the Republican administration of Gov. Jim Douglas included a 3 percent cut in employee wages, Challenges for Change government restructuring savings, and the elimination of roughly 660 positions resulting from state efforts to make permanent cuts in spending.

As for future increases in agency caseloads? Reardon has asked departments to absorb any additional costs the state may face because more Vermonters are seeking assistance through Reach Up, Catamount Health, Dr. Dynasaur, the Vermont Health Access Plan and a host of other services.

Departments that might see an increase of say 6 percent in costs for programs will have to find 12 percent in total savings under Reardon’s budget exercise recommendation.

Reardon, 52, who will stay on in his role as commissioner of Finance and Management, is working with the Democratic transition team to craft Gov.-elect Peter Shumlin’s recommended budget, which will be presented to the Legislature on Jan. 25.

The new governor and lawmakers face an 8 percent budget gap in January, or about $112 million out of the $1.4 billion General Fund budget.

As lawmakers and Statehouse observers well know, devising a fiscal year 2012 budget that doesn’t create deeper cuts in services and further reductions in staff is going to be no small task. The federal stimulus funds have been spent, the “easy” cuts have been made and the current year’s budget gap looks something like a sheer cliff.

Click here to see the Vermont Joint Fiscal Office’s budget gap analysis chart.

Shumlin has said he won’t eliminate jobs, raise taxes or dip into the state’s exigency or stabilization fund (a.k.a. the rainy day fund). During the campaign, he declined to give concrete examples of how he would address the current year’s fiscal difficulties except to say that his signature programs – health care and corrections reforms – would create long-term budget savings. His proposals, which didn’t provide detailed information regarding fiscal year 2012, were criticized for their lack of specificity. In the intervening month since his election, Shumlin has not yet indicated how he will resolve the gap, though several Democratic members of his newly appointed administrative staff – state Treasurer Jeb Spaulding and Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Bartlett – are regarded as budget hawks.

Jim Reardon, commissioner of the Department of Finance and Management

Reardon’s recommendation that state officials find 6 percent savings in operations drew a collective gasp, but, as the reality of situation sinks in, such drastic cuts aren’t outside the realm of possibility.

What those program and service changes might look like within the context of the governor’s budget recommendation is anyone’s guess at this point, but responses from soldiers on the ground are in. The department commissioners submitted their written submissions to Finance and Management in October, and since then Reardon has met with them to discuss their options. The information he has gathered has been made available to the players in the ingoing and outgoing administrations, but has not been announced publicly because, Reardon says, it is protected under administrative privilege.

So where does the process go from here?

Reardon said he’ll go through the responses and determine what departments need to “pretty much achieve current service levels.” Then he’ll go through the program and service budget numbers and compare them with available revenues to identify the latest iteration of the budget gap. At that point, Reardon and Shumlin’s team will have to decide how to resolve the discrepancy. (Any budget adjustment recommendations from the department will be rolled into the 2012 budget. Reardon declined to cite a figure.)

The transition, so far, is going extremely well, Reardon said: “Our instructions from (Gov. Jim Douglas) is to make it the best transition and to be of every possible assistance.”

He said Gov.-elect Shumlin’s two key transition team members – Spaulding and Bartlett – have longstanding relationships with the Douglas administration and that will aid the budgeting process immensely.

“It’s not like you’re bringing in people who are completely in the dark about state government as it relates to finance and policy,” Reardon said.

Inside Finance and Management

How will Shumlin’s budget be created? As it turns out, not so differently from that of his predecessors’, according to Reardon and his right-hand man, Otto Trautz.

Though priorities might shift somewhat from year to year, depending on which political party is in charge of the executive branch and the two bodies of the Legislature, the budget, in Trautz’s view, is first and foremost a historical document.

Trautz: “The budget didn’t just fall off the turnip truck, there’s a history and reason for expenditures over time.”

The budget consists of “the competing demands of program needs and revenue deemed available,” Trautz said. “The program needs are in large part a product of history. The budget didn’t just fall off the turnip truck, there’s a history and reason for expenditures over time.”

Trautz, 68, the director of budget and management operations, has served in the office of Finance and Management since 1980 under five governors and 15 different legislatures. Trautz is now retired, after 39.5 years in state government (he worked in the Department of Corrections and for the court administrator in the 1970s), though he’s helping Reardon out with the fiscal year 2012 budget as a part-time temporary employee.

Reardon and Trautz have worked together so long (since 1994) that they finish each other’s sentences, and they seem to rarely differ on the finer points of budget-writing.

Reardon described how governors have shaped budgets over the years by making policy commitments that have had long-term impacts on spending patterns. He cited Democratic Gov. Howard Dean’s VHAP program and Republican Gov. Jim Douglas’ support for Catamount Health as two examples of programs that continue to affect the way state money is spent.

“Those are commitments you can’t turn aside every year…,” Trautz interjected.

“…Without changes in law,” Reardon said, finishing the thought.

Political winds can affect particular programs and services, but by and large the budget is something of an immutable object, they said.

A Victorian lamp in the House Chambers of the Vermont Statehouse. Photo by Kate Schubart

“How much the budget changes or even is subject to change is sometimes overestimated,” Trautz said. “It’s not as if you start fresh. It’d be foolish to try to because of the context the budget really lives in. It’s a palimpsest.”

Even given the overall predictability of the budget, putting together the governor’s recommendations is far and away the most difficult task the finance duo faces.

Trautz says the first week of January haunts his thoughts all year. The budget office has to be able to deliver high quality work on a tight deadline. The results, he said, are tested and questioned by the Legislature, and the budget office has to “be able to defend them all the way through.”

“The budget waits for no man,” Trautz said. “When the Legislature shows up on Jan. 5, and the governor by statute has to give his budget address by the third Tuesday of the session … things have to be ready. It’s not as if you can say we’re not finished … There is this imperative as to when things have to be ready for action. And the committees in their own way have their own imperatives.”

Reardon said he anticipates a slow economic recovery over the next several years, and that makes resolving the gap in fiscal year 2012 more difficult. He said whatever recommendations his team makes to the governor, he wants to make sure “we fully understand those recommendations in terms of their impacts on programs and services.”

“The budget gap is the budget gap,” Reardon said. “It didn’t go away when Sen. Shumlin got elected, and it wouldn’t have gone away had Lt. Gov. Dubie gotten elected.

“The incoming governor, as opposed to his opponent or the current governor, may have different approaches to closing that gap, but nevertheless it’s got to be closed,” Reardon said. “2012 is an extremely important year as to how we close that gap and put the budget on a sustainable basis, so as we have this slow recovery, we’ll be in a better place. If we just patch fiscal year 2012 together, then it’ll be the dog wagging the tail for the next several years.”

In the past, Trautz and Reardon have tried zero-based budgeting, or scrapping the budget for a given department and starting from nothing, with little success.

Trautz said Democratic Gov. Madeleine Kunin tried zero-based budgeting in the 1980s to satisfy campaign promises, but it wasn’t effective.

Madeleine Kunin in 1982, photo from the Vermont Historical Society

“John Dooley (Kunin’s secretary of administration at the time, and now a Vermont Supreme Court justice) was carrying around satchels of budget papers, struggling under the weight of these budgets, but … nothing changed,” Trautz said.

The principle that took hold when Republican Gov. Richard Snelling was elected in 1990 was sustainable budgeting, Trautz said.

Gov. Richard Snelling

“That term became central to anything that goes on here,” Trautz said. “It refers to the difference between ongoing and one-time commitments. Whatever the revenue stream – and that’s really where the fluctuations are – we need to look at a longer-term spending track and not commit ourselves to ongoing programs with an unsustainable funding source. That’s really the tension between people who see an opportunity to spend on good things and those who are concerned with the longer term.”

When sustainability is the central concept, the spotlight is on revenues rather than program needs, Trautz said.

When Reardon first became commissioner in 2003, he tried to rebuild the budgets for the Department of Public Safety and the Department of Health, but he said there was no substantive difference in the outcome.

“Once we took it down to (zero) and built it up again, we pretty much ended up with what we had in place,” Reardon said.

Though Reardon is a proponent of sustainable budgeting, which remains the guiding philosophy in state government, he believes budget writers should look at program needs and services first to determine “whether they’re operating efficiently and effectively and whether they reflect the priorities of the Legislature and the administration before you commit to finding additional revenue.”

“To me you always look at the spending side for opportunities before you necessarily commit to needing additional revenues,” Reardon said.

Reardon: Challenges could make budgeting less subjective

Reardon firmly believes the state needs to continue the Challenges for Change government restructuring effort that began in the 2010 legislative session. He said asking departments to do more with less is essential.

“I actually think it should be expanded to more areas of state government,” Reardon said. “I haven’t given a lot of thought of where it should go next, but I certainly think it should be extended across state government.”

In October, Reardon told the Government Accountability Committee that the state would fall short of the fiscal year 2011 target of $38 million by about $7 million. Reardon found one-time money to fill the void.

Next year’s $72 million target is “a pretty significant bogey,” he said.

“I don’t know if it’s a little too ambitious, but I definitely think we should continue to roll out this initiative and assume some savings,” Reardon said.

In the future, Reardon said the Challenges initiative could change the way budgets are presented by departments and agencies. Instead of only reporting budget numbers, commissioners and secretaries will be required to present data that show whether or not a given program or service is successful.

“Then you can evaluate whether you want to put more dollars into it, or, in the case of a program that’s not working, whether you want to go a different direction and eliminate that particular program,” Reardon said.

In theory, that process could make state government more agile, though some programs and services would take years to evaluate.

“If you’re doing early intervention programs for children, in terms of getting them ready for school, you probably see some near-term results, but you probably have to find some long-term results,” Reardon said.

He cited the Blueprint for Health as an example of a program that is supposed to provide early intervention and prevention for patients that could need more costly treatment down the road for diabetes or other chronic diseases. “Those savings could be years out,” he said. “So you’d hope to have more near-term measurements, but you also have long-term measurements that you have to monitor for a while.”

The art of finance

Despite the long hours and serious nature of their work, Reardon and Trautz manage to have some fun. Neither man professes to have a hobby — Reardon dabbles in carpentry, fishing and hunting, though he says he doesn’t have much time, and Trautz is a storyteller for the monthly Montpelier MOTH program. (Trautz jokes that when he retires, he’ll try to finish reading the novel he started when he took the job in 1980 — “Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.”)

It would seem that Reardon and Trautz both enjoy number-crunching so much that they don’t need outside interests.

In fact, they first bonded over a Sunday morning confab over the budget in 1994. Reardon, who lives in Essex Town, was working for the Agency of Human Services at the time, and he needed some information and called Trautz, who happened to be in the office.

“We’ve been in here a lot of Sunday mornings since then – and Saturdays,” Reardon said.

“People talk about the office,” Trautz said. “I think of it more as a workshop, and perhaps even a studio or a laboratory, because you’re doing all these wicked interesting things, and the budget office is fortunate in one way and that is in large part, we set the rules for how these things are going to be done.

They keep “budget development” safety caps (construction hardhats) on hand. A whistle dangles from Reardon’s door, in case he needs to call the troops.

“We all have inline skates in case we need to make a visit to Jim’s office,” Trautz jokes.

Reardon says: “We may operate like a MASH unit, but we’re good at what we do.”

So good, in fact that the department is a two-time winner of the Certificate of Achievement for Excellence in Financial Reporting – the highest recognition in government accounting and financial reporting – from the Government Finance Officers Association of the United States and Canada for its 2008 and 2009 comprehensive audited financial reports.

Trautz, who lives in Montpelier, has a working memory of the complex budget statutes, and he combs the hundreds of pages of budget language in the Big Bill every year. He said two-thirds of the legislative act, which is typically 1,000 pages long, is filled with budget language that must be carefully parsed.

“If you make your way through the words, you can see how many strings are attached and how many angles there are – different things you have to satisfy to spend the money,” Trautz said.

Trautz, though, finds a way to make his analysis of the budget – and its complex language – interesting for non-accounting types, maybe because the Harvard master’s program graduate isn’t an accountant himself, but a self-taught finance expert.

During the meetings with the House Appropriations Committee last year on the Budget Adjustment Act recommendations, Trautz brought a stuffed animal and a baby blanket to illustrate to lawmakers that it was time to put the budget to bed. (See the video clip at the end of this post.)

“People talk about the office,” Trautz said. “I think of it more as a workshop, and perhaps even a studio or a laboratory, because you’re doing all these wicked interesting things, and the budget office is fortunate in one way and that is in large part, we set the rules for how these things are going to be done.

“We write the budget instructions,” Trautz said. “We always feel that it’s your own project that you’re pursuing, and that way you can feel you’re putting your own imprint on it. That’s what has kept me so interested over the years is that it’s ours. And it’s in a real-time environment. You’re doing something that not only people care about but they hang on every word when you go to a committee. You have a built in audience for what you’re doing. What could be better?”

VTDigger

Gov.-elect Peter Shumlin, right, announces that Jeb Spaulding, left, will be his Secretary of Administration

Gov.-elect Peter Shumlin announced five appointments to his administration on Monday. Shumlin has tapped state Treasurer Jeb Spaulding for the position of secretary of administration – the top job in state government.

Spaulding was just elected to his fifth term on Nov. 2.

“There’s no one I can think of who shares my view of a fiscally conservative and carefully managed state budget … that has the skills to do that, like Jeb,” Shumlin said.

Spaulding said when the governor-elect first asked him to serve as secretary, “My first reaction was, no, you’re joking, what’s the next question? But you know, I was persuaded by the fact that my experience does match pretty well with the job.”

Spaulding, the founder of Montpelier radio station WNCS, represented Washington County in the state Senate from 1985 to 2001. He served on the administrative rules, joint fiscal and appropriations committees. In 2002, he was elected treasurer and took office in 2003. Over the course of his tenure, the state’s bond rating has remained the best in New England. In 2009, he mulled a run for governor, then backed out of the race.

“If you’re somebody who loves public service … you have confidence in the governor, and you think you can contribute; it’s hard to say no,” Spaulding said.

Shumlin said he will name Spaulding’s successor in the state treasurer’s office in the coming weeks.

Spaulding’s appointment was something of a surprise because Sen. Susan Bartlett, one of Shumlin’s four rivals in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, was widely expected to be named the secretary of administration.

Instead, Bartlett, who was the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, will serve as a special assistant to the governor.

Shumlin said Bartlett will be the point person for expanding broadband, “making Vermont government more efficient,” reforming the health care system, curbing inmate recidivism rates and launching the pre-kindergarten initiative.

“Her skill is to take big ideas and make them happen,” Shumlin said.

Bartlett and Spaulding each have a reputation for financial conservatism.

Beth Robinson, left, will be special counsel, and Bill Lofy, right, will be chief of staff in the Shumlin admininstration

When asked if he was trying to send a message, Shumlin said: “I am a very fiscally cautious governor. I do not believe Vermont’s biggest problem is (that) our taxes are not high enough. I do believe we are spending beyond our ability to pay our bills, which is why we’re in the third year of having to dig deep into the cuts. So we have a lot of challenges. One is to bring what I call business skills to state government. I’m going to run state government like a business. You can’t achieve your dreams if you can’t balance your books.”

Shumlin said he would not be increasing taxes, but that he would likely support major changes to the state’s tax policies suggested by Vermont’s Blue Ribbon Tax Commission.

“I do believe Vermont’s current tax structure is discouraging growth, and taxes do matter among many other infrastructure changes that government can make to help grow jobs. I am so bullish on Vermont’s job creation, I think we have an extraordinary future, but it’s going to require making the right infrastructure judgments … tax policy’s a part of this.”

Bill Lofy, a resident of Jericho, Vt., who managed the transition for Sen. Al Franken, D-Minn., and worked on Gaye Symington’s unsuccessful bid for governor in 2008, will be the governor’s chief of staff. Lofy will be responsible for hiring and firing staff. He told reporters the governor-elect has about 60 positions to fill before January. Douglas administration officials must submit their resignations within 30 days in order to be considered by Shumlin’s transition team. Lofy and two transition team members – Liz Bankowski and former Gov. Howard Dean – will help to vet the large number of resumes that find their way to transition team headquarters, a Victorian house on 128 State St.

“I find you get the best results when you have really bright people helping to make tough decisions,” Shumlin said.

Lofy said they will appoint agency secretaries first. He said he didn’t know if the transition team would attempt, as it looks to fill positions, to consolidate departments or change the structure of state agencies.

“The opportunity,” Shumlin said, “is for all of us to forget about party, forget about partisan politics, and to use the energy that comes with a new administration with new ideas and new vision to help Vermonters get back to work.”

Beth Robinson, an attorney for Langrock, Sperry and Wool, who is renowned for her role in helping to pass the state’s historic gay marriage legislation, will serve as special counsel for the new administration.

In an interview, Robinson said she will help Shumlin develop specific plans to fulfill his promise to operate a “transparent” administration.

Alex MacLean, Shumlin’s campaign manager, will be the administration’s communications specialist and head of civil and military affairs. It’s a post that was previously held by Jason Gibbs under the Douglas admininstration. When asked whether her appointment would appear partisan, Shumlin replied that MacLean earned her chops when she helped him run the Vermont Senate. Shumlin said he hadn’t decided whether he will hire a press secretary as well.

Shumlin, Bartlett and Spaulding said very little about the budget sessions now under way with Jim Reardon, commissioner of the Department of Finance and Management, and Neale Lunderville, secretary of administration for Gov. Jim Douglas. Bartlett predicted they wouldn’t have “anything new or interesting” to report until December.

The lobbyists and others in attendance included: Sen. John Campbell, Mike O’Neil of the Vermont Troopers Association; Heather Shouldice, an associate at William Shouldice, LLC; Lucie Garand, of Downs Rachlin Martin; and Adam Necrason, of Sirotkin and Necrason.

CORRECTION: Spaulding took office in 2002, not 2001 as was previously reported.

VTDigger

Peter Shumlin gives victory speech.

Vermont was immune to the red-hot anti-incumbent fever that gripped the nation on Election Day. Voters instead turned the state a deeper shade of royal blue.

Hawaii, it turns out, was the only other state to elect as many Democrats to office, according to retired Middlebury professor Eric Davis.

Vermonters not only kept the so-called “bums” in for statewide office (not a single incumbent lost), but they also backed President Barack Obama in exit polls, according to Chris Graff, a former journalist and political commentator, who is now an executive with National Life Insurance Co.

Nearly 60 percent of Vermont voters said they approved of the way the president is handling his job. Nationally, Obama’s approval rating after the mid-term election is about 47 percent, according to The Gallup Organization.

“I think if you analyze the returns, Vermont was just about totally immune from the wave that swept the country,” Graff said. “I think we felt that during the fall, and didn’t see any evidence of Tea Party anti-incumbent fever, and to have it proven that way — while all across the country voters going the Republican way — that was a surprise. Vermont truly is an island.”

Congressional Democratic incumbents Rep. Peter Welch and Sen. Patrick Leahy hardly needed to put up a fight in Vermont. Everywhere else, longstanding senators and representatives were in a battle for survival that many, especially in the Midwest, lost to Republicans.

Chris Graff

http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010

The biggest color swap in Vermont was in the governor’s office. A gubernatorial victory had eluded the grasp of Democrats for eight years, but on Election Day the seat fell to Peter Shumlin – by a mere 4,331 votes, according to the official Nov. 9 tally from the Vermont Secretary of State’s office. (Republican Brian Dubie conceded last week. Because Shumlin didn’t hit the 50 percent mark, under the Constitution the Legislature must vote by secret ballot to confirm him.)

In open contests for statewide office, Republican Phil Scott of Middlesex was the only winner. With the exception of State Auditor, Tom Salmon, all of the re-elected incumbents happened to be Democrats.

Though eight legislative races are subject to potential recounts, the Vermont Statehouse is still held by a Democratic “supermajority,” as outgoing Gov. Jim Douglas likes to put it.

Where does the Vermont GOP go from here?

Davis says the Republicans are falling into a “trap”: Their base is shrinking. The GOP’s core constituents live in parts of the state – namely Rutland County and rural northern Vermont (including the Northeast Kingdom) – where population is stagnant or falling.

The Democrats, meanwhile, hold the fastest growing geographic zones of the state – Chittenden County and the Upper Valley along the Connecticut River, according to Davis.

In addition, exit polls indicate there is an education gap, Davis said.

The GOP’s base consists largely of lower- and middle-income voters who don’t have college degrees, while the fastest growing group of voters in Vermont is college educated – and they voted overwhelmingly for Shumlin in this latest election.

Garrison Nelson, UVM political science professor

“Their base is a smaller and smaller share of the electorate,” Davis said. “If the GOP nominates social conservatives like Brian Dubie, it’s going to be difficult for them to win.”

Nelson blamed Dubie’s loss on two factors: negative campaigning that turned off voters and the statistical improbability of any lieutenant governor seizing the Fifth Floor.

“The Republican Governors Association has a basic playbook: attack, attack, attack,” Nelson said. “Corry (Bliss) was the enforcer. Brian takes orders–he’s a military guy–and that was my concern about him being governor.”

The late U.S. Sen. Robert Stafford of Rutland, who died in 2006, was the last Vermont politician to win a gubernatorial seat from the post of lieutenant governor — in 1958. Since then, 12 lieutenant governors, including Dubie, have lost bids for governor.

Nelson said the role is akin to serving as a school traffic cop. “It doesn’t prepare you for anything,” Nelson said. “You preside over the Senate, but you don’t vote.”

Eric Davis

Graff said over the last 10 years, it has become extremely difficult for Republicans to win statewide office. Gov. Jim Douglas is the notable exception.

“It takes incredible message discipline,” Graff said. “For a Republican to win, everything has to go right in Vermont, and that’s why I was surprised that Brian Dubie was as close as he was to winning. The odds were against him. I never felt this was Brian Dubie’s race to lose. I don’t think a Republican in this state is ever in that position.”

Graff said Dubie was helped by the economy in this election, but going forward, unless Shumlin “makes a serious mistake, he’ll be governor a long time.”

In part that’s because his timing is good, Graff said. There will be budget difficulties this year and next, he predicted, but probably, by the end of his first term “people will feel better about the direction the state is going.” And it won’t necessarily be because of Shumlin’s policies. “He’ll reap the benefit of a turnaround (in the economy) most people see coming in the next few years.”

Graff attributed Republican Lt. Gov.-elect Scott’s clear victory to his appealing personal style. “Vermonters vote based on personality, not party,” he said.

Republican Jason Gibbs’ loss took Davis by surprise. The perception that Gibbs wanted to use the secretary of state’s office as a stepping stone to even higher office may have worked against him, Davis said. Jim Condos, on the other hand, told voters that his only ambition was to be the secretary.

Another factor that may have shifted the race away from Gibbs was a radio ad that featured Republican state Sen. Vince Illuzzi backing Condos, Davis said.

The unsolicited advice department

Now that the die has been cast and the Shumlin’s transition team is working on recommendations for administration appointments, all eyes are on the $112 million budget gap the governor-elect and lawmakers must resolve in the coming legislative session.

Nelson said it’s going to be a tough year.

“They’re going to have to cut something,” Nelson said. “Democrats don’t like to cut programs, and taxes are going to have to be raised.”

Graff said although Shumlin knows what he’s facing because he has gone through difficult budget cycles as Senate president pro tem, in his new role as governor he will, for the first time, be responsible for creating the budget.

“The Legislature plays around edges when they make changes to a governor’s budget,” Graff said. “Shumlin wants to change the priorities of state government, and doing that in the tough budget year he faces will be difficult.”

Shumlin will have a harder time balancing this budget “than Douglas would if he were in office,” Graff said, because the current budget reflects Douglas’ priorities.

Graff said Shumlin will have to choose a new director for the Agency of Human Services, for example, who will reflect his administration’s priorities. (The state spends about $1 billion a year on government services for poor, elderly, disabled and mentally ill Vermonters, and it’s an area that has been targeted for cuts under the Douglas administration.)

Graff said a good sign is Shumlin’s appointment to his transition team of Susan Bartlett, the former Senate Appropriations chair; former Gov. Howard Dean; and Liz Bankowski, former chief of staff for Gov. Madeleine Kunin — “seasoned folks who have seen everything.”

“(Susan Bartlett) is as tough a budget person as you can get,” Graff said. “Susan in her campaign was much more negative talking about what the state was going to face than Shumlin was. It’ll be interesting to see how the arguments and debates work themselves out.”

Graff said Republicans and Democrats alike have a “tremendous respect” for Bankowski. Graff described Dean as “the most fiscally conservative governor in 40 years.”

“For him (Dean) to be willing to help Peter Shumlin to become governor is a great assist,” Graff said.

“(Dean) took Dick Snelling’s plan and made it even more conservative,” Graff said. “(He) helped the state come out of fiscal crisis of the early 1990s…pretty driven to balance the budget.”

Dean, who was governor for 11 years (the longest serving in the state’s history since Thomas Chittenden held the office in the 18th century), brings a perspective to the team no one else has, according to Graff.

“For him to be willing to help Peter Shumlin to become governor is a great assist,” Graff said.

The conciliatory nature of the transition is very important, Graff said.

Bartlett is working closely with Neale Lunderville, Gov. Douglas’ secretary of administration, and Jim Reardon, the current commissioner of the Department of Finance and Management.

Graff noted that Douglas pledged in a press conference last week not to be critical of the new governor.

“Dean made that pledge, too,” Graff said. “It’s a great tradition because you don’t want former governors nitpicking everything. It’s good for them to leave the building and get out of the way.”

Davis speculated that Bartlett will propose new one-time revenue infusions without raising broad-based taxes. He said he expects that the Vermont Tax Commission’s proposals to reorganize the way taxes are collected will create additional revenues as well. A tax on Internet sales, for example, would help fill the budget gap, according to Davis.

“(Shumlin) will squeeze where possible, but he’ll look at new initiatives to close the gap,” Davis said.

Davis predicts that Shumlin will try to incorporate Bartlett, along with fellow Democrats former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and unsuccessful auditor candidate Doug Hoffer, into his administration. He also suspects that Alex MacLean, Shumlin’s campaign manager, will become his press secretary.

“I see Alex as on much the same career path as Andrew Savage (Peter Welch’s legislative assistant),” Davis said. “She knows the press.”

Of the existing administration officials, only one made Davis’ list of likely survivors in the new administration: David Dill, Transportation Agency secretary. Dill served in the Dean administration and has a reputation as a professional bureaucrat without political baggage, according to Davis.

VTDigger

148 Donahue Drive

Northfield, VT 05663

October 15, 2010

To the Editor:

October 15 was the deadline for the latest campaign filing, and as I pulled into one of several open “visitor” parking spaces at the Secretary of State’s office, I couldn’t help but notice a car with “Senate 1” as its plate, parked squarely in one of the marked handicap parking spaces.

The plate had no handicap indicator, and no temporary handicap sign. As a member of the disability community, it’s something I’m sensitive to.

Yes, it happens. We can all be careless. But we in the legislature have an obligation to set higher standards for ourselves as elected leaders, and an identifiable car becomes a symbol of the legislature as a whole.

I went in and asked who “Senate 1” was, and Sen. Susan Bartlett identified herself. She was signing in to deliver a finance report on behalf of Sen. Peter Shumlin’s gubernatorial campaign.

I said found her parking inappropriate.

I expected a bit of embarrassment, and an apology along the lines we all make when we err: “I knew I was only going to be there a moment and wasn’t really paying attention, but you are right, it was a bad example to set.”

Instead, she defended it and, clearly annoyed, attempted to make light of it. There were lots of open [handicapped] spaces, she said.

When I persisted she tried to shush me. “Oh, cut it out,” she repeated several times. In effect, “stop trying to make a big deal out of nothing.”

She turned her back to me to walk out, still brushing it off. “Cut it out.”

I responded: “I’m damn serious about this.”

She half turned her head. “Go to hell,” she said, and walked out the door.

Since when are state senators above the law?

The term for this kind of response is arrogance.

It is the kind of arrogance that has dominated Senate leadership over the past several years, so it should not have surprised me, coming from that leadership and that campaign.

I told Sen. Bartlett that her response tempted me to write a letter to share her attitude publicly.

“Go right ahead,” she snapped.

So here it is.

Rep. Anne Donahue

R-Northfield

VTDigger

SEPTEMBER 7, 2010

Democratic Gubernatorial Candidates Launch a United Vision for Vermont Tour

Burlington, Vt – The presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Peter Shumlin and the four other Democratic Candidates for Governor today launched their United Vision for Vermont Tour. The candidates will make seven stops throughout the state on the two-day tour where they will highlight their unified vision to put Vermonters back to work and get our economy moving again.

“As Democratic candidates for governor we have a united vision of how best to get Vermonters back to work,” said Shumlin. “This vision includes a healthy middle class, an economic environment where every Vermonter, no matter how rich or how poor, will have an equal opportunity to succeed. This is in stark contrast to Brian Dubie, whose George W. Bush’s style plan will sacrifice our environment and our children’s education to give tax cuts to the wealthy.”

“Vermonters will have a clear choice in November,” said Racine. “We all share values of a clean environment, real opportunities for all Vermonters, and a good education for every child in Vermont. We will build a strong economy that provides good jobs for Vermonters.”

The candidates highlighted their own vision and also spoke about why they felt Peter and not Brian Dubie is the candidate with the skills, experience and vision to create good paying jobs and protect our quality of life.

“In these difficult economic times, it is more important than ever that we have a Governor with experience handling the state budget,” said Bartlett. “When Brian Dubie released his economic development plan it became crystal clear that he has never written a budget, voted on a budget or had to manage a budget. His numbers simply don’t add up. Madeline Kunin said that she learned what she needed to learn about being governor by being on the appropriations committee. Peter has been there and understands the task confronting the state.”

“As a mother of teenagers enrolled in Vermont’s public school system I understand how important our high quality education system is for our families, our economy and our future,” said Markowitz. “I trust Peter Shumlin to uphold the quality of this system. On the other hand, Brian Dubie intends to destroy it so he can give tax breaks to Vermont’s wealthiest.”

“We need a governor with experience making a business work in Vermont to understand how to make it possible for new businesses to start and existing businesses to thrive,” said Dunne. “This is not a time for someone like Brian Dubie who has no experience creating jobs and, from his economic development plan, does not understand what our businesses need. We need a Governor who can start on day one creating an economy that works for all of Vermont.”

The candidates are traveling the state together in an RV and will be making three additional stops tomorrow, Wednesday, September 8.

Details of the tour are below:

Wednesday, September 8:

8:30 – 9:30 AM: Brattleboro

**Note: Change in Location** Pliny Park (on the corner of Rte 5 and Rte 9 in downtown Brattleboro)

10:30 – 11:00: White River Junction

GroSolar, 601 Old River Road, WRJ

12:30 – 1:30: Montpelier

Location: State House Lawn

VTDigger

Leahy stands with the five Democratic primary candidates for governor. Photo donated by Alden Pellett

Nothing about this year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary has been predictable or conventional. It’s broken all records for fund-raising ($2 million) and for the number of candidates (the last time five candidates vied in a comparable primary was the 1980 GOP U.S. Senate primary). It also has been remarkable for a general lack of negativity (no personal attacks – in public debates or advertising campaigns).

So it’s perhaps no wonder that the primary election itself would be an anomaly, too. The specter of a recount has put the Dems in election purgatory for at least a few days and maybe a few weeks. In either case, the clock is ticking for the would-be candidate in the race against Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie.

The 2010 primary may make history again if any one of the top three vote getters – Peter Shumlin, Doug Racine and Deb Markowitz – calls for a recount once the Secretary of State’s office certifiesTuesday’s vote. All three are well within their rights to do so. Under Vermont law, candidates for the statewide office or the state Senate can demand a recount if the vote differential is within 2 percent. (The threshold is 5 percent for candidates for state representative and local offices.)

The state has never held a recount for a statewide primary.

“It would be a historic first, to the best of my knowledge,” said Gregory Sanford, the state archivist.

The current tally, according to the Associated Press, is: Shumlin 18,192 votes (25 percent), Racine 18,000 votes (25 percent), Markowitz 17,503 votes (24 percent), Matt Dunne 15,242 (21 percent) and Susan Bartlett 3,774 (5 percent).

Secretary of State Markowitz says her office will likely certify the vote on Friday or Saturday. Kathy DeWolfe, director of the Elections Division, is presiding over the certification of count; the deadline is Tuesday.

Until then, none of the three will concede, and the Vermont Democratic Party’s entrance into the General Election gubernatorial campaign is in limbo land. The current state of uncertainty could last a few days — if candidates concede when the certified vote is released – or several weeks, if a recount ensues.

At the party’s unity rally in Burlington, all five Democrats running for governor stood on a stage, hand in hand, to rousing applause. Once out of the limelight, fissures soon formed about the certainty of the moment. Later that afternoon, the Burlington Democratic Party released a tweet asking Racine to concede the race to Shumlin.

Peter Shumlin, left, speaks with Jim Condos

Shumlin, however, studiously used “seems” and “appears” – as subtle caveats in his claims to victory.

“It appears that we’ve won,” Shumlin said.

As for the specter of a recount? “We don’t think you’re going to see any squabbling among Democrats,” Shumlin said. “Right from the beginning, it’s been a very positive message from all of us, and I feel pleased that we’ve won, and we’ll know that very soon.”

Shumlin told reporters he would respect the certified vote tally and would not call for a recount if the numbers shift in Racine’s favor. He also gently bounced the ball back into Racine’s court: “I agree with any decision Doug makes,” Shumlin said. “We’re not going to quarrel about the process. This has been an incredibly respectful debate. Doug ran a great campaign; he’s made an extraordinary contribution to this state, and I’ll go with whatever judgment he makes.”

Davis said the candidates are “acting perfectly appropriately” and Shumlin is legitimate in saying “It appears that I have won.”

“Shumlin isn’t forcing the matter,” Davis said. “He isn’t doing anything to act triumphantly.”

For his part, Racine said he wouldn’t concede until the certified vote was released. “This is about getting an accurate count,” Racine said. “Mistakes can be made at this stage in the tallies.” Racine said in Williston, for example, the unofficial Associated Press count originally gave Dunne one vote, when in fact his tally was 201 votes. The difference between Shumlin and Racine is 192 votes, well within the margin of error.

Racine’s campaign manager, Amy Shollenberger, was blunt with supporters in an e-mail: “This race is still a toss-up, and we are not conceding. Doug is still very much in contention for a victory, and the results must be officially certified before the true winner is declared.”

Racine also cited the 2006 General Election, in which a 250 vote swing in a recount of the auditor’s race changed the result. Tom Salmon, who originally lost to incumbent Randy Brock, asked for a recount and won. “This is a very close tally,” Racine said. “All candidates have a right to see what the accurate numbers are.”

There appears to be no hope for Deb Markowitz, in spite of her good showing. The 689-vote gap is insurmountable, according to Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College. Markowitz was tight-lipped about her own bid for a possible recount.

“We have to see the final numbers,” Markowitz said. “We have to be focused on how are we, as a party, are going to best be able to beat Brian Dubie.”

That focus, in the meantime, is hazy.

House Speaker Shap Smith, left, talks with Matt Dunne

The Vermont Democratic Party’s foray into the General Election gubernatorial race is on hold until a candidate emerges from the smoke, and Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie’s campaign is taking full advantage of the uncertainty. He is introducing his economic development plans on a whistlestop train tour from St. Albans to Brattleboro this Saturday and formally unveiling his 10-point proposal on Monday. He invited more than 100 supporters to a rally outside the Doubletree Hotel in South Burlington, where the first debate of the General Election was to be held last night. The debate was postponed until Sept. 26 because of the uncertain primary results.

“The polls would say he’s ahead,” said Chris Graff, longtime Vermont journalist and political observer, now a business executive in the private sector. “He’ll remain ahead until there is engagement (with the Democratic contender).”

There is a 2-1 split among pundits on the impact of a recount on the General Election. Davis and his counterpart, Garrison Nelson, a professor of political science at the University of Vermont, said a recount would hurt the Dems’ chances in November: “They’ve got to coalesce quickly.”

Davis said 70 percent to 80 percent of towns now use scanners instead of hand counting, which makes the tally much more accurate.

“If the margin in the official count ends up near the unofficial count somewhere near the 200-or-less mark,” Davis said, “at that point, candidates need to think very hard about whether or not they want to make the party go through the two weeks that a recount would take.”

Davis said ballots have to be brought from each town to county courthouses, and temps have to be hired to count the ballots by hand. Then those reports have to be sent to Washington County Superior Court, which has to handle any disputes about voters’ intent – a mark that’s not in a square, or something similar.

“You’re still talking about the 15th of September at the earliest,” Davis said. “If the official count shows a substantial narrowing of the margin from the unofficial count, if the official count shows a Shumlin margin of fewer than 100 votes, then I think in those circumstances, the recount might well be in order.”

Graff says a primary recount, in which roughly 72,000 voters cast ballots, isn’t a big deal. A General Election recount with 200,000 ballots cast like the Salmon-Brock recount in 2006 requires a great deal more time and effort, he said.

“I don’t think it would be damaging, because the primary was early,” Graff said.

But there is also the sour grapes factor: Will voters be turned off by a candidate who is a sore loser, who insists on a recount at the expense of the party’s success in November?

David Moats, in an editorial in The Rutland Herald on Aug. 26, wrote that all three top vote-getters are in an “excruciating” position, and “for either Racine or Markowitz to call for a recount could well put (the General Election) in jeopardy.”

“My sense is, if the margin stays where it is, that going forward to the General Election would be the appropriate thing to do,” Eric Davis said.

Was the five-way governor’s nomination race a mistake?

For lack of a single winner on Wednesday, the Vermont Democratic Party gave out a Miss Congeniality award at the unity rally – to all five gubernatorial candidates. Not a harsh word was spoken (in public, anyway) over the course of the 10-month campaign slog. The candidates sometimes expressed frustration, but they refrained from front-on attacks in ads and in more than 60 forums.

Sen. Patrick Leahy and Rep. Peter Welch both defended the five-way gubernatorial race at the rally. They both said it attracted more voters, brought in more campaign cash and generated more excitement than ever for the Democratic Party.

“I think you’re going to see a lot of enthusiasm (in the General Election),” Leahy said.

This year, the open governor’s seat shuffled almost all of the primary cards – opening up four other statewide seats, lieutenant governor, secretary of state and the auditor’s office. The Democrats had 13 candidates competing for the four slots, while the GOP had four candidates running in statewide primary races – two each for lieutenant governor and secretary of state. The only offices that weren’t touched by Gov. Jim Douglas’ decision not to run for a fifth term were the attorney general and the state treasurer.

Steve Howard, Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor

Nelson said the five-way gubernatorial race shouldn’t have happened in the first place. “The Democrats are dim-witted,” Nelson said. “They should never ever have committed five people to run for the same office. The lieutenant governor’s office was open, the auditor’s office was open, and the secretary of state’s office was open. That’s the reality folks. They had four offices, and they became dim-witted. That’s why you need a king where you sit down and say this is the job you run for, but instead they threw away $2 million and gave four people losing records.”

Sanford, the state archivist, disagrees. “Some people say this is a breakdown of party discipline — how can you end up with five in one race?” Sanford said. “The contrarian in me says the primary is finally working the way it’s supposed to, giving voters an opportunity to select among credible candidates.”

Sanford compared the 2010 primary to the 1958 and 1980 GOP congressional races, and the 2000 GOP gubernatorial primary between Bill Meub and Ruth Dwyer. Sanford said he’s not sure there has been a primary that has involved so many hotly contested statewide party races since the state instituted the first primary in 1916.

“To see a race … attract a lot of attention up and down ticket is very rare,” Sanford said.

Will the losses do permanent damage? Nelson said Markowitz and Dunne ran credible races, and they’ll both be back. Nelson said Welch, Madeleine Kunin, Racine and Douglas all lost hard-fought statewide races over the course of their careers, only to try again and win.

“Because of the two-year term, your career is never over in Vermont,” Nelson said. “But the more defeats you pick up, the more difficult it is to raise money, and that’s the issue. That’s where the defeats have their adverse impact.”

Hindsight is 20/20

So why did Markowitz, Racine and Shumlin hit the winner’s tape at practically the same time?

Shumlin and Markowitz very likely spent more than half a million each over the course of their campaigns. Shumlin, who put at least $225,000 of his own money into the campaign, employed a carpet bombing approach to advertising, saturating broadcast outlets around the state, but especially in Chittenden County where he needed to buy name recognition. Markowitz invested her money into a textbook campaign with a large field staff.

Racine raised half as much money and went the distance against his richer counterparts. He relied on his name recognition in Chittenden County and his status as the beloved candidate of the left-of-center Dems and the Progressives, and his endorsements from Vermont-NEA, the AFL-CIO, the Vermont State Employees Association and the Vermont League of Conservation Voters translated into on-the-ground grassroots support.

“I think we’re seeing that those kinds of resources count just as much as money does,” Racine said. “If this is a referendum on tactics, there’s no clear winner here tonight (Tuesday).”

Howard Dean speaks with Sen. Patrick Leahy, left

The Dunne, Markowitz, Racine and Shumlin campaigns had identified about 15,000 likely voters, Graff said. None of them could have predicted that the turnout would be roughly 72,000 for the Democrats – not 45,000 as speculated. The GOP drew 26,000 voters for highly competitive races for lieutenant governor and secretary of state.

Graff said each gubernatorial candidate employed effective strategies; he blames the close race on turnout.

“The four major candidates did what they had to do,” Graff said. “It’s just that turnout was larger than planned.”

Shumlin came in first statewide because he got such a huge percentage in Windham County, according to Davis who has analyzed the results. Shumlin placed third in the other 13 counties, Davis said.

Davis aggregated the vote tallies for Racine and Markowitz county by county and determined that with the exception of Windham County, Racine came in first with a 1,000 vote lead over Markowitz.

See the Politico map of the results by county.

“My view is Shumlin won because he got such a huge turnout in Windham, and because they had a contested Senate primary,” Davis said. Shumlin’s open seat in the Senate was effectively filled on Tuesday, and so he benefited not only from a strong base in Windham County, which he has represented in the Senate for years, but also because voters turned out in large numbers.

Shumlin wasn’t the only candidate who benefitted from the “friends and neighbors phenomenon,” Davis said. Matt Dunne won Orange and Windsor counties – his home base in the Upper Valley – but was unable to carry that success over to the rest of state, with the exception of Lamoille County.

“Racine and Markowitz had a vote that was much more widely dispersed across the state geographically than Shumlin, Dunne or Bartlett,” Davis said. “But Shumlin came out of Windham with enough votes to come in first statewide.”

Racine would have liked to have done better in Chittenden County, where he grew up, and his fourth- place showing in Windham County hurt him, Davis said.

“I think (Racine) righted the ship after a disappointing financial report in July,” Davis said. “My sense was, the Racine campaign was in good shape and the primary election might have come a week too early for him. If the primaries had been a week later, I wonder whether Doug Racine might have gotten those 200 extra votes and might have come out on top.”

Markowitz was in a much stronger position at the beginning of the summer, but she may have peaked too early, or the other candidates surged past her, Davis said. Had the election been held in June, Davis contends she would have won the election with as much as 40 percent of the vote. Instead, she ended up with 25 percent. She lost Montpelier, her home, to Racine by one percentage point, and Barre and Barre Town by 6 percent and 7 percent, respectively, according to the totals from the Associated Press. She failed to carry the majority in most Washington County towns.

“My sense is that voters who may have told a pollster in June that they were supporting Markowitz, but as the other candidates started to campaign harder and became more visible, those voters might have taken a second look and decided that somebody else was whom they were going to be voting for in the end,” Davis said.

Another pattern that is starting to emerge is a split between towns that favored Racine and Markowitz or Shumlin and Dunne. Though Davis said he hasn’t fully finished this analysis, a trend is already evident.

“In quite a few of the towns I’ve looked at where Shumlin was first, Dunne was second and vice versa, and (towns) where Racine was first and Markowitz was often second,” Davis said. He pointed to Addison County as an example. When the total votes cast for Shumlin and Dunne are added together, they add up to more than 50 percent. Racine and Markowitz votes, in contrast, were above 30 percent. The reverse is true in Rutland County where Racine and Markowitz together were more than 50 percent.

If Shumlin is the Democratic primary nominee for the General Election, he’ll need to win the towns that Racine and Markowitz held, Davis said.

What would Davis, Nelson and Graff do? Part 1

The first order of business is raising more money, according to Davis. The Democratic contender needs to have $1 million in hand for the General Election. If the nominee is Shumlin, he may spend more of his own money on the race, Davis said.

“I think Peter Shumlin, assuming he’s certified as the winner, needs to do two things for the fall campaign: One is mobilize the base to drive up turnout, and the second is, keep ticket-splitting voters from defecting to Dubie,” Davis said. “Those ticket-splitting voters are going to vote for Leahy and Welch at the top of the ballot, so what Shumlin needs to do is get them to stay Democratic as they move down the offices on the ballot.”

Graff agrees. Shumlin, if he is the nominee, will need to galvanize the left and pivot to the middle in the same motion.

One way to do that is for the nominee to concentrate on mid-size, swing communities that aren’t solidly Democratic or Republican, towns like Colchester, Milton, Barre, Barre Town, Northfield, Randolph, Bethel and Bennington.

“These have often been the places where Vermont elections get determined,” Davis said.

Deb Markowitz, Peter Shumlin, Doug Racine, left to right. Photo donated by Alden Pellet

Voters split tickets in these towns and in the past have voted for Leahy and Jim Douglas over Scudder Parker, or John Kerry and Jim Douglas over Peter Clavelle. “Shumlin needs to get those sort of voters voting Democratic all the way down the ticket,” Davis said. He suggested that Leahy and Welch should campaign for the Democratic nominee in those towns.

Nelson said if Shumlin is the nominee, he will need to win over Racine’s loyal supporters.

“If I’m Peter, I would say to Doug, you name your job — whatever you want (in the administration) you can have it,” Nelson said. “I would work with Doug to make sure I campaign with him and tap into those people who are devoted to Doug. They’re going to be hard to transfer.”

The most crucial thing Shumlin needs to do, according to Graff, is to get his message out ahead of Dubie’s.

“What really matters is, who can get their opponent on the defensive and define them the fastest,” Graff said. “That’s what Jim Douglas did in each of his elections with Clavelle, Parker and Symington.”

What would Davis, Nelson and Graff do? Part 2

Their advice for Dubie? Learn from the master, i.e. Jim Douglas.

Douglas worked hand in glove with two savvy political operatives – Neale Lunderville and Jim Barnett – who were able to frame the campaigns before the incumbent governor’s opponents realized what was going on. “People don’t realize how skillful, how disciplined and on message they were,” Graff said.

Graff said at this point, “We don’t know if Dubie has the messaging discipline to pull it off.”

Douglas typically won 60 percent of the independent or moderate voters, Graff said, and Dubie will need to do the same. “In a General Election, that’s where the votes are,” he said. “The race will be won in the middle. You’ll see both nominees talk about jobs and the economy.”

The best way for Dubie to secure the middle is to campaign in the swing towns, according to Davis. Though there is some transference of Douglas’ popularity onto Dubie, “It’s not absolute by any means,” Davis said. “Jim Douglas ought to campaign for him where he has done well, but where Democrats aren’t necessarily strong. Jim Douglas shouldn’t be spending his time in the fall talking to the Republican committee in Caledonia County or someplace like that. He should be in Barre and Northfield and Colchester.”

It appears that there will be a battle of surrogates—Pat Leahy and Jim Douglas—for their respective party candidates. Douglas is out front for Dubie already, and Leahy made a commitment to campaign for whoever won the Democratic nomination.

Nelson said Dubie doesn’t appear to have the energy level Douglas has, and he hasn’t won a race on his own. The professor is critical of the lieutenant governor’s campaign strategy. “Dubie has made a mistake,” Nelson said. “You can’t switch campaigns on and off.”

All three political analysts see the debates as a defining factor in the General Election. The forums, they agree, will not be Dubie’s strong suit. “I think you’ll see Brian Dubie avoid one-on-one debates,” Graff said. Instead, he’ll likely insist that the five minor party candidates be included in all of the debates, according to Davis. “I think voters of the state would benefit from several broadcast debates between Brian Dubie and Peter Shumlin, rather than debates between seven people, only two of whom have a chance of being elected governor,” Davis said.

If Shumlin takes the nomination, he’ll have an edge as a debater, Nelson says, because he’s quick-witted and has a grasp of the issues.

Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, Facebook photo

Graff thinks winning in the General Election will come down to intangibles that have nothing to do with the issues. Vermonters want to know the governor on a personal level, Graff said. They like Douglas because they trust him.

“There’s a great deal of personality and personal chemistry that matters,” Graff said.

A lot of voters like Dubie, Graff said, but he doesn’t know how superficial the attraction may be at this point. Running for lieutenant governor is like performing in an off-off Broadway production and campaigning for the top office is “the show,” Graff said. There is simply less scrutiny, he said, of down-ticket office holders.

“I think Brian Dubie has a significant lead right now, and it will narrow, unless somebody does something stupid,” Graff said.

He predicted by mid-October the race would be too close to call.

VTDigger

Deb Markowitz, Peter Shumlin, Doug Racine, left to right. Photo donated by Alden Pellet

The Vermont Democratic Party held a unity rally for the 13 party candidates for statewide races, including state auditor, secretary of state, lieutenant governor and governor. Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., and Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., headlined the event. The party’s stars, including former governors Howard Dean and Madeleine Kunin, and the faithful, including many state reps and senators, attended the to-capacity event, which attracted about 300 people.
The winners and also-rans were in attendance. All five gubernatorial candidates were in tow, though the winner of that contest is still unknown as the top three vote-getters — Sen. Doug Racine, Sen. Peter Shumlin and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz — are only a few hundred votes apart. A winner won’t be announced until a certified vote count is released by the Secretary of State’s Election Division and the candidates decide whether to call a recount.

-

VTDigger

Looking for work

All five Democratic candidates have issued economic development packages that come in slightly different wrappings, with different names. Matt Dunne gave us “The Innovation State,” Deb Markowitz is pitching “JumpstartVT,” Peter Shumlin has a “Vision for Vermont,” Susan Bartlett is offering “A Realistic Jobs Plan for Vermont,” and Doug Racine issued “Revitalizing our Economy.”
The plans range in length from three pages (Bartlett’s) to 27 pages (Shumlin’s). Bartlett’s proposal is the only one of the five that is focused solely on job creation initiatives. All of the rest read like soup-to-nuts campaign platforms. Just about every key area of policy — health care, education, broadband, energy and tax policy — is swept into the economic development basket.

And then there’s the other key question: How do you pay for all these initiatives? With the exception of Dunne’s plan to use revenue bonds to pay for broadband expansion and Bartlett’s proposal to borrow $15 million over two years for affordable housing investments (also banking on the state’s bonding capacity), the candidates propose paying for many of the new initiatives with money from old programs.

Because there is some crossover between candidates, we’ve grouped elements of the plans in same and different (“outlier ideas”) categories. We’ve tried to sum up each of the ideas in a paragraph. For readers who want to know more, we’ve included links to the campaign plans and reports from Vtdigger.org, the Burlington Free Press and the Vermont Press Bureau.

Outlier ideas

Bartlett wants to free up more capital for small businesses by encouraging the Vermont Economic Development Authority to work with local banks to create a lending program for new enterprises. Bartlett also proposes the creation of an Office of Innovation and Intellectual Property for entrepreneurs who need investors and technical and business support. She wants to invest $60 million a year in affordable housing projects to help lift the hard-hit construction trades out of the doldrums.

Dunne points to four types of economic engines that the state needs to encourage in order to develop its economy in the competitive global business environment: new enterprises that will mature and eventually be bought out by bigger companies; the creative economy; tourism based on outdoor recreation; and “slow money” businesses, such as agriculture and food. His plan includes micro-loan programs for new businesses, service scholarships for college students and job training programs in information technology and “next generation” agriculture.

Markowitz wants to “end relationships” with banks that profit from state investments, but refuse to lend money to Vermont businesses; create a tax credit program for businesses that don’t qualify for the Vermont Employment Growth Incentive program; and create tax incentives for Vermonters who want to save to start a business.

Racine is proposing a state property tax credit for new construction that is LEED certified (an internationally recognized green building certification system) or any existing building retrofitted to conform to LEED standards. He is also promoting a permit ombudsmen concept – a single point of contact in each region for businesses that are in the process of obtaining permits.

Shumlin wants to reform the tax system, ensuring that the 1 percent of Vermonters who pay 25 percent of the state’s taxes don’t leave the state. He says he plans to “tweak” the state’s reliance on “primary revenue generators,” i.e., the sales and income tax structure, to encourage economic growth.

On the same page

Permitting

Bartlett, Shumlin, Dunne and Racine say they want to simplify and consolidate what they say is a cumbersome local and state permit process for businesses.

Early education

Markowitz, Shumlin and Racine have cited pre-kindergarten education in their economic development plans as long-term investments.

Same general concept, with a twist

Small business support

Racine would create a revolving loan fund for businesses and encourage community-supported and employee-owned businesses.

Dunne proposes a tax incentive for investors who help to capitalize Vermont companies.

Markowitz supports existing programs such as SCORE, Vermont Small Business Development Centers, micro-lending and the value-added and seal of quality product promotion.

Shumlin and Dunne both propose expanding the Seed Capital Fund.

Reorganization of the Agency of Commerce and Community Development

Bartlett wants to reallocate funding from ACCD to regional economic development corporations, regional planning commissions and other programs. “These dollars need to be at work in the field, not Montpelier.”

Dunne doesn’t address the agency role directly; he focuses on a comprehensive business plan for the state.

Markowitz is proposing an integrated marketing plan coordinated with trade associations.

Racine wants to build an economic development team that cuts across state government, reinstate the ACCD advisory committee and the Jobs Cabinet.

Shumlin is promoting a new marketing plan for Vermont that would include an online help-wanted list for college graduates and a statewide ad messaging campaign that could be adapted for regional businesses.

Health care as an economic development driver

Matt Dunne sees health care costs as a burden for businesses. He wants the state to adopt a self-insurance plan for all Vermonters that would be modeled after programs set up for large corporations that use a single health insurance company. He would redesign the reimbursement system so that doctors are rewarded for care instead of fees for service. He says this new system will cut health care costs for businesses and individuals and stimulate entrepreneurship in the state.

Deb Markowitz says unless the state comes to grips with health care costs, they will stand in the way of “our economic prosperity.” She is a proponent of some of the state’s existing initiatives, including the Blueprint for Health and Catamount Health. Markowitz wants to create a self-insurance program for Vermont, introduce standardized billing and build on state health care reform programs. Markowitz supports the health care exchanges created under the federal Affordable Care Act, which will operate like a public option, giving patients a choice of plans and payment options.

Peter Shumlin says health care costs are crippling the state’s economy. He wants to adopt a Medicare-style, single-payer health care system that would be administered by the state. He cites a study that estimates the administrative savings would be about 5 percent, or between $250 million and $500 million. He wants to create a swipe card with medical records and electronic payment information for every Vermonter.

Susan Bartlett, A Realistic Jobs Plan for Vermont
Matt Dunne, The Innovation State

Deb Markowitz JumpStartVT

Doug Racine, Revitalizing Our Economy

Peter Shumlin A Vision for Vermont

VTDigger

When in doubt, vote.

As many reporters and pundits have noted, there are few essential differences between the five Democratic candidates in their views on the budget, health care, education, economic development, agriculture, human services, and energy and the environment.

But there are subtle and not-so-subtle policy nuances that might make the difference for voters who haven’t yet decided which name to check off on Tuesday: Susan Bartlett, Matt Dunne, Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine or Peter Shumlin.

We examined statements made by the candidates on specific issues and boiled them down to a paragraph. For readers who want to know more, we’ve included links to stories by reporters from the Associated Press and the Burlington Free Press. The information is derived from candidates’ campaign Web sites, news reports and forums.

Cheat sheet # 1 focuses on the budget, health care and education.

BUDGET

Whoever becomes governor faces a budget cliff: State tax revenues are expected to grow about $15 million next year. That growth won’t be enough to make up for a large gap between revenues and the cost of state government. For fiscal year 2012, the state is coming up $184 million short of the projected cost of government services: That figure includes the $112 million shortfall, plus $72 million in Phase 2 Challenges for Change savings that have yet to be fully identified in human services, education, state contracts and other areas. So far, phase 1 of the Challenges has yielded about $28 million in budget reductions, about $10 million less than the $38 million projected so far for fiscal year 2011.

The Douglas administration and the Legislature have already eliminated about 660 positions in state government and have asked the state workforce to take a pay cut of 3 percent; struck a deal in which teachers will wait longer to retire and contribute more than $15 million a year to the state retirement fund; and made significant cuts in mental health programs and Medicaid benefits.

Income tax revenue growth has dropped precipitously in the down economy as Vermonters have lost jobs, taken pay cuts and worked fewer hours. All five candidates have issued economic development plans that they say will shore up the state’s economy – and state revenues.

House Speaker Shap Smith told Vtdigger.org recently: “I don’t expect the gap can be made up through revenue growth. I think, quite frankly, this may be the most difficult budget year we face.”

So how will the five candidates solve the state’s budget woes? Here’s what we found:

Sen. Susan Bartlett, D-Lamoille, chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee and chief budget writer for the Vermont Senate

Bartlett believes the state’s budget needs to be further reduced; she does not advocate for more taxes or using budget stabilization funds. She would apply Challenges for Change to all aspects of state government. Bartlett wants to reintegrate nonviolent prisoners into communities, which she says will save the state millions of dollars.

Matt Dunne, former state senator from Windsor County, now a community affairs executive for Google

Dunne would reevaluate the effectiveness of programs and transform state government through initiatives developed through better information sharing. He is an advocate for cloud computing

(Internet-based computing), which he believes would produce significant savings. He would cut public relations staff now working at agencies and departments across state government.

Secretary of State Deb Markowitz

Markowitz is critical of Challenges for Change. She often cites her office’s elimination of a division that microfilmed records as an example of how she would target reductions in state government. She says she will eliminate the $61 per diem meal allowance for the governor’s office, which would save $16,000.

Sen. Doug Racine, D-Chittenden, chair of the Senate Health and Human Services Committee

Racine believes the state needs to find more efficiencies through technology, rather than cuts to services, tap into about half of the state’s $60 million budget stabilization fund (a.k.a. rainy day funds) and tax junk food or Internet sales to help make up for the budget gap. He would eliminate public relations staff.

Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin, D-Windham

Shumlin believes the state can reap significant savings in health care costs by moving to a single payer health care system. He wants to reintegrate nonviolent prisoners into society and cut the Corrections budget by $40 million (the current budget is roughly $140 million).

Associated Press, “Candidates share ideas on balancing the state’s budget”

Burlington Free Press, “Democratic gubernatorial candidates outline views on five key topics”

Burlington Free Press, “Q and A, Round 11”

Burlington Free Press, “Comment and Debate: Vermont gubernatorial candidates talk about dealing with waste and inefficiency”

HEALTH CARE

Vermonters are expected to spend $4.9 billion on health care next year. That expenditure is expected to grow by $1 billion in 2012. Though Congress enacted reforms this year that will be fully in effect in 2017, the five Democratic candidates say something has to be done right away to curb costs in Vermont. Their plans for getting there, however, vary.

Bartlett would focus on global budgeting, which would provide a set amount of funding each year for hospitals, according to her Web site, because “about 40 percent of Vermont insurance money goes to hospitals.” She says insurance companies would send the money for hospitals to the state, which would pay hospitals directly. She calls it “a major step toward” containing the costs of health care. “The measure is a sort of quasi-single-payer health-care system, where the state acts as a conduit between insurance companies and hospitals,” she wrote on her Web site.

Dunne is a proponent of a “self-insurance” plan for all Vermonters, similar to plans used by large corporations. A single insurance company would administer the plan. He would call for a redesign in “how we implement reimbursements so that businesses and individuals pay less and doctors are rewarded based on making people better.”

Markowitz would also implement a “self insurance” plan for all Vermonters and launch a pilot program to introduce standardized billing procedures for the largest hospitals and doctors’ groups. She supports the new federal health care reform “exchanges,” which will be available next year. She says the exchanges will “look just like Expedia or Orbitz, where consumers can choose the type of plan they want and see different options.”

Racine sponsored S.88, the health care bill that calls for a redesign of the state’s system. A consultant is currently developing three models for health care in Vermont: single-payer, public option and a third, yet-to-be determined, alternative system. The Legislature will decide which of the three design proposals the state might pursue.

Shumlin is a proponent of a government-administered, single-payer system. He believes such a system will control costs and save individuals, businesses and the state significant amounts of money. He says a single-payer system will be good for business because it will remove the burden of health care costs from their payrolls.

Burlington Free Press, “Health care and the governor’s race”

Education

Vermont spends about $1.3 billion a year on K-12 education, according to the Vermont Transparency Web site. Our student to teacher ratio is 10 to 1 – the lowest in the nation. School boards across the state have been cutting budgets as student enrollment has declined, but enrollments are expected to drop even further, from 92,000 to 85,000 statewide, in the coming years. The Legislature passed a voluntary school district consolidation plan in the last session, in order to cut supervisory district administrative costs. Under Challenges for Change, school districts have been asked to find $23 million in savings, and the Department of Education has developed targets for each district in the state. Last year, schools cut their budgets by the same amount – by roughly 2 percent. The Douglas administration and Republican candidate for governor, Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, have called for significant cuts in school personnel to reduce education spending and relieve the property tax burden on Vermonters.

All five of the Democratic candidates for governor support some form of supervisory district consolidation that would cut administrative costs. Here are the details:

Bartlett is calling for a reduction in the number of supervisory union districts from 62 to 16. “The path to getting to larger districts needs to be paved by finding all the best practices in administration and requiring all districts to implement these practices over a two-year time period,” she writes on her Web site. She also wants to see “a critical evaluation of special education” and thresholds set for minimum and maximum class sizes. She wants to “scrap the CLA (common level of appraisal system for property tax setting) in favor of a system with a statewide, three-year rotating professional appraisal.”

Dunne opposes mandatory school consolidation, though he says he would reduce the number of superintendents in the state by two-thirds. Dunne says he would encourage bulk buying across districts and distance learning via the Internet. He would eliminate the two-vote provision, which penalizes schools for spending more than 1 percent above inflation. He would also eliminate the Common Level of Appraisal and “move to a regularly scheduled appraisal system.”

Markowitz supports a reduction in the number of supervisory union districts, and she says she would provide incentives for local communities to decide whether to consolidate schools. “We must find innovative ways to lower education costs and find more effective and efficient ways of managing our schools, by consolidating purchasing and administration,” Markowitz says on her Web site.

Racine supports voluntary supervisory union consolidation to reduce administrative costs, and he said he is willing to explore any ideas for removing inefficiencies from the education funding system, as long the changes don’t undermine quality education. “I recognize that the cost of our education system is rising and that the burden on our property taxes is too much for some Vermonters to bear,” he wrote on his Web site.

Shumlin would make grants available to local communities to help them decide whether to consolidate. He would also provide grants to municipalities that want to use school buildings for community services. He would expand distance learning and “steer us away from the obsession with testing.”

Burlington Free Press, “Democratic gubernatorial candidates outline views on five key topics”

Burlington Free Press, “Gubernatorial candidates talk about public education”

VTDigger

vote

The five Democratic primary candidates for governor and the eight Republican and Democratic candidates for lieutenant governor and secretary of state have spent the last three months intensely campaigning.

At live forums, house parties, local fairs, and in newsprint, online and broadcast outlets, they’ve worked hard to persuade voters that they have the skills, experience and beliefs to stand out as leaders.

We know that if you’re reading Vtdigger.org, you’ve probably already followed the machinations of the preponderance of candidates vying for office this year. But even some political junkies are on the fence about whom to vote for in the Democratic gubernatorial race and the Republican primaries for lieutenant governor and secretary of state. That’s because this year is the first time in decades the state has seen so many qualified candidates come forward for so few open slots.

You have tough decisions to make on Tuesday, and we’re doing what we can to help you out. We have aggregated links to candidates’ Web sites and profiles of statewide candidates produced by media outlets around the state. We hope this gives you access to as much information as possible about would-be governors, lieutenant governors, secretaries of state and auditors.

In separate posts, we will be aggregating media reports about where candidates stand on the issues; video, podcasts and stories from the debates; and stories about how much financial backing they’ve each received (and from whom) and how they’ve spent their moolah.

By the way, Vtdigger.org is a nonprofit news organization and may not endorse any candidates.

Happy reading, viewing and listening!

GOVERNOR’S PRIMARY RACE

What follows are the profiles and Web sites of Democratic candidates for the gubernatorial primary listed in alphabetical order. Sources: vtdigger.org, Burlington Free Press, Seven Days, Times Argus, WCAX, WDEV-The Mark Johnson Show.

Sen. Susan Bartlett, D-Lamoille, chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Campaign Web site: http://www.bartlettforgovernor.com/

Sen. Susan Bartlett

Vtdigger.org, “Sen. Susan Bartlett, the underdog once again, this time in the race for governor”

Burlington Free Press, “Susan Bartlett is proud of her no-nonsense style”

Seven Days, “Finally Susan: The senator from Lamoille County is telling it straight, but is anybody listening?”

Times Argus, “Lamoille County’s Sen. Bartlett looks to moderates to deliver primary victory”

WCAX, “Candidate profile: Susan Bartlett”

WDEV, Mark Johnson Show with Susan Bartlett, podcast link

Matt Dunne, Google executive, former state senator. Campaign Web site: http://www.mattdunne.com/

Matt Dunne, photo by Terry J. Allen

Vtdigger.org, “A precocious candidate with no shortage of confidence”

Burlington Free Press, “Matt Dunne: A lifetime of early starts”

Seven Days, “Dunne’s Deal: Will youth and experience be a winning combination for Google exec Matt Dunne?”

Times Argus, “Ambition, love of state drive Dunne’s quest for governorship”

WCAX, “Candidate Profile: Matt Dunne”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Matt Dunne, podcast link

Secretary of State Deb Markowitz

Campaign Web site http://www.debforvermont.com/

Vtdigger.org, “Markowitz banks on local network, women’s vote”

Burlington Free Press, “Her motto is see it, solve it”

Deb Markowitz, July 15, 2010

Seven Days, “On Your Markowitz: Deb Markowitz has made a career of assisting Vermonters. Will they return the favor and make her governor?”

Times Argus, “Markowitz uses executive experience to build her case in heated Democratic primary”

WCAX Candidate profile: Deb Markowitz

WDEV The Mark Johnson Show with Deb Markowitz, podcast link

Sen. Doug Racine, D-Chittenden. Campaign Web site http://dougracine.com/

Vtdigger.org, “With head-on approach to state’s fiscal problems, Racine is betting he can finish first”

Burlington Free Press: “College text inspired Racine to make a difference”

Racine at the Addison County Field Days WCAX debate

Seven Days, “No More Mr. Nice Guy? Doug ‘Quiet Man’ Racine says he’s tough enough to be governor”

Times Argus, “With new fire in the belly, Racine says he’ll pitch truth over promises”

WCAX, “Candidate profile: Doug Racine”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Doug Racine, podcast link

Senate President Pro Tem Peter Shumlin. Campaign Web site: http://www.shumlinforgovernor.com/

Vtdigger.org, “Shumlin, a gubernatorial candidate marked by determination and smarts”

Burlington Free Press, “Shumlin is at home in the middle of the action”

Times Argus, “Sharp political mind touts his legislative successes in the Legislature”

Peter Shumlin on the trail, photo from Peter Shumlin for Governor Web site

Seven Days, “Peter Principled: Shumlin’s got the political mojo, but can he win Vermonters’ trust?

WCAX, “Candidate Profile: Peter Shumlin”

WDEV The Mark Johnson Show with Peter Shumlin, podcast link

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR PRIMARY

What follows are the profiles and Web sites of Republican and Democratic candidates for the race for lieutenant governor, listed in alphabetical order. Sources: vtdigger.org, Burlington Free Press, Seven Days, Times Argus, WCAX, WDEV-The Mark Johnson Show.

The Republicans

Mark Snelling, businessman. Campaign Web site: http://www.snellingvermont.com/

Vtdigger.org, “In Snelling’s Vermont, the economy and environment are No. 1”

Mark Snelling

Burlington Free Press, “Vermont lieutenant governor race in the shadows”

Times Argus, “Snelling: A scion of state leaders follows in their footsteps”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Mark Snelling

Sen. Phil Scott, file photo

Sen. Phil Scott, R-Washington. Campaign Web site: http://www.philscott.org/

Vtdigger.org, “Freedom and Unity could be Phil Scott’s slogan in the lite gov race”

Burlington Free Press, “Vermont lieutenant governor race in the shadows”

Times Argus, “Phil Scott pitches common sense and finding common ground”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Phil Scott

The Democrats

Chris Bray, D-New Haven. Campaign Web site: http://www.brayforvermont.com/

Chris Bray

Vtdigger.org, “Bray, an academic and entrepreneur, pushes for big ideas in lite gov race”

Burlington Free Press, “Vermont lieutenant governor race in the shadows”

Times Argus, “Bray: Consensus not conflict, key to success”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Chris Bray, podcast link

Rep. Steve Howard, D-Rutland. Campaign Web site: http://www.stevehoward2010.com/

Steve Howard speaks in the well of the House during the 2009 gay marriage debate. Photo by Karen Pike.

Vtdigger.org, “Howard wants to turn lite gove office into a bully pulpit”

Burlington Free Press, “Vermont lieutenant governor race in the shadows”

Times Argus, “Democrat Howard touts a broad appeal”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Steve Howard, podcast link

SECRETARY OF STATE PRIMARY

What follows are the profiles and Web sites of Republican and Democratic candidates for the race for Vermont Secretary of State, listed in alphabetical order. Sources: Burlington Free Press, Seven Days, Times Argus, WDEV-The Mark Johnson Show.

Jason Gibbs, Republican. Campaign Web site: http://gowithgibbs.com/

Jason Gibbs, left, with Gov. Jim Douglas

Burlington Free Press, “Lively races in both parties for Vermont Secretary of State”

Times Argus, “Gibbs seeks Secretary of State office”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Jason Gibbs

Part 1, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/24/72210-jason-gibbs-sos-pt-1.aspx

Part 2, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/24/72210-roy-pt-2.aspx

Chris Roy, Republican. Campaign Web site: http://www.roy4sos.com/

Chris Roy

Burlington Free Press, “Lively races in both parties for Vermont Secretary of State”

Times Argus, “Roy touts skills desire for public service”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Chris Roy

Part 1, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/24/72210-chris-roy-sos-pt-1.aspx

Part 2, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/24/72210-roy-pt-2.aspx

Jim Condos, Democrat. Campaign Web site: http://www.jimcondos.com/

Jim Condos

Burlington Free Press, “Lively races in both parties for Vermont Secretary of State” http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/article/20100809/NEWS03/100808012/Lively-races-in-both-parties-for-Vermont-secretary-of-state

Times Argus, “Condos touts his background in Secretary of State’s race”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Jim Condos

Part 1, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/23/72110-jim-condos-sos-pt-1.aspx

Part 2, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/23/72110-condos-pt-2.aspx

Charles Merriman

Charles Merriman, Democrat. Campaign Web site: http://merrimanforvt.com/

Burlington Free Press, “Lively races in both parties for Vermont Secretary of State”

WDEV The Mark Johnson Show interview with Charles Merriman

Part 1, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/20/71910-charles-merriman-pt-1.aspx

Part 2, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/20/72010-merriman-pt-2.aspx

STATE AUDITOR’S RACE

Sen. Ed Flanagan, D-Chittenden, and Doug Hoffer, a policy analyst, are vying for the Democratic nomination.

Ed Flanagan’s campaign Web site: http://www.edflanagan.org/

Doug Hoffer’s campaign Web site: http://hofferforauditor.com/

Doug Hoffer

Seven Days, “Which watchdog? The Vermont auditor’s race may be the weirdest one yet”

Times Argus, “Ed Flanagan ready to return to auditor’s office”

Times Argus, “Doug Hoffer is running on his record”

WDEV, The Mark Johnson Show with Doug Hoffer, podcast link

Part 1, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/16/71510-doug-hoffer-pt-1.aspx

Part 2, http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/07/16/71510-hoffer-pt-2.aspx

VTDigger