Photo from Vermont Public Television

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The 20 dollar bill

Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie and Sen. Peter Shumlin were less than 4,400 votes apart, so perhaps it’s not surprising that their expenditures were also very close. The two candidates spent a total of $2.913 million: Dubie spent $1.486 million — $59,491 more than Shumlin did.

The two main outside groups that fueled hundreds of thousands of dollars into election season advertising – the Democratic Governors Association and the Republican Governors Association — hadn’t yet filed campaign finance reports on Monday with the Vermont secretary of state’s office.

According to reports of mass media buys on the secretary’s Web site, the DGA outspent the RGA by $347,294. The national Democratic group spent $609,204 under its own name on Shumlin’s behalf and $493,855 on “issue ads” under a 527 nonprofit group known as Green Mountain Future.

The RGA’s Green Mountain Prosperity political action committee’s expenditures on behalf of Dubie totaled $755,765, according to a campaign finance report filed with the Secretary of State on Nov. 15.

Other groups, including Planned Parenthood of New England ($119,437); Vermont Conservation PAC ($15,182); Vermont Working Families ($5,897) spent a total of $140,516, according to figures from the public files made available at local television stations. (Planned Parenthood reported that it spent $25,225 in its statement to the Vermont Secretary of State’s office.)

In all, the record shows – so far – that outside groups spent $1.99 million on the gubernatorial General Election.

Add it all up, including the amount spent on the Democratic primary ($1.2 million), and you get a grand total of $6.1 million.

The biggest winners in the 2010 gubernatorial election were the state’s three commercial TV stations.

WPTZ made $772,600 in advertising from September through November in ads from PACs, 527s and the two candidates; WCAX brought in $713,359; and Fox 44 received $366,285.

Downticket dispersals

Compared with the gubernatorial race, the downticket statewide races are small potatoes. The lieutenant governor’s contest stayed under $350,000 total, and the secretary of state’s race came in under $150,000 for both candidates.

Here’s a rundown of total expenditures:

Lieutenant governor

Phil Scott, Republican: $175,050 (winner)

Steve Howard, Democrat: $160,343.

Secretary of State

Jim Condos, Democrat: $83,020 (winner)

Jason Gibbs, Republican: $61,055.

State Auditor

Tom Salmon, Republican: $57,103 (winner)

Doug Hoffer, the Democrat/Progressive, didn’t file a cover sheet for his submission to the Secretary of State’s office, so total figures for his campaign weren’t available Monday.

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 8:13 a.m. to include new figures from Green Mountain Prosperity. Shumlin’s campaign totals include his primary and General Election expenditures. He gave his campaign $285,000 over the course of both contests. The downticket dispersals section was added at 9:30 a.m.

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Corry Bliss, Dubie's campaign manager. Photo by Terry J. Allen

In Vermont’s just-concluded election for governor, “most ethically challenged” became a campaign mantra for Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie’s effort to paint ultimate winner, Democratic state Sen. Peter Shumlin, as untrustworthy. Compiled by VTdigger.org, via Internet search-engine Google, here is a representative sample of the war of words that coursed through Vermont’s political bloodstream from early-March to the Nov. 2 election, in print, press releases, the Internet and over the airwaves.

March 8, 2010. Fox Business Channel airs an interview with Democratic candidate for governor Peter Shumlin in which he mistakenly asserts Germany gets 30 percent of its electricity from solar power.
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/4087852/lawmaker-on-closing-nuclear-plant/?playlist_id=87053

March 12. “Yes Vermont Yankee,” a Web site advocating relicensing of the Vermont Yankee nuclear plant, posts a critical commentary and video of Shumlin’s Fox Business interview. Other critics soon begin to characterize Shumlin’s solar-power gaffe as a “lie.”
http://yesvy.blogspot.com/2010/03/shumlin-overstates-himself.html

March 13. VermontTiger.com, a self-described “free-market” blog, takes Shumlin to task for the error.
http://www.vermonttiger.com/content/2010/03/bad-infomation.html

March 15. The “energy collective,” a pro-business and pro-nuclear Web blog, reports Shumlin’s Fox Business appearance under the headline: “Vermont Senate President Peter Shumlin Caught Lying to the American People on Fox News.” (In fact, Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie is the Senate president; Shumlin is Senate President Pro-Tem.

March 17. Bob Audette, of the Brattleboro Reformer, reports Shumlin’s lengthy explanation of his Fox Business Channel comments after he gets a cascade of criticism for it.

March 17. A 7Days news story by reporter Andy Bromage reports the outcome of the weekly newspaper’s survey of Vermont legislators, lobbyists, and statehouse staffers and reporters, noting the lawmaker to get the most votes as “most ethically challenged” was Senate President Pro-tem Peter Shumlin. (The surveys sent out were returned by only 30 of the 400-person sample. A total of 12 of those 30 respondents checked off the “most ethically challenged” box for Shumlin.)
http://www.7dvt.com/2010legislative-survey

March 19, In a second article, after the first of many anti-Shumlin attack-ads appears based on the survey, reporter Andy Bromage defends 7Day’s decision to publish the survey. In the comments box following this story, 7Days co-publisher Paula Routly also defends publication, despite the low response rate.
http://7d.blogs.com/blurt/2010/03/national-governors-association-fires-on-shumlin-using-7d-survey.html

March 22. Burlington Free Press Statehouse reporter Terri Hallenbeck reports in vt.Buzz, the Free Press blog, Shumlin’s error about Germany’s solar power usage and his explanation for his misstatements.
http://bfp-poltics.blogspot.com/2010/03/shumlin-out-foxed.html

June 23. 7Days publishes a lengthy Shumlin profile entitled “Peter Principled?” in which they leave out the context that the survey had a paltry response rate, leaving the reader to link back to an earlier story containing that context, or, for those who did not link back, with the impression the survey could be one of several indicators of Shumlin’s poor ethical character.
http://www.7dvt.com/2010peter-principled

Sept. 20. Kate Duffy of Brian Dubie’s campaign issues a press release and video using the 7Days survey as a basis for a sweeping “Shumlin-most-ethically-challenged” attack-ad theme that will continue
throughout the campaign.
http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/20/dubie-releases-new-shumlin-ethically-challenged-ad/shumlin-using-7d-survey.html

Sept. 29. Republican Governors Association TV ad also uses 7Days survey as basis for “most-ethically-challenged” label
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a_S_ix34rrc

Oct. 6. Vermont Public Radio’s Mitch Wertlieb interviews Paula Routly of 7Days and St. Michael’s College journalism professor David Mindich on the “most-ethically-challenged” controversy. Routly staunchly defends publication of the survey. Mindich calls it “a fun, lighthearted survey…not scientific” but “definitely with room for manipulation…which 7Days acknowledged.”
http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/88943/

Oct. 6. Front-page blogger Jack McCullough at Green Mountain Daily.com, a staunchly pro-Democrat/progressive Web site, blisters Routly on the basis of that interview.
http://greenmountaindaily.com/diary/6892/paula-routly-cant-be-that-stupid

Oct. 7. Front-page Green Mountain Daily blogger Julie Waters points to contextual and statistical lapses in 7Days’ followup coverage of the survey controversy.
http://greenmountaindaily.com/diary/6894/basic-statistical-literacy-or-lack-thereof

Oct. 11. Blogger Jon Margolis, Vermont News Guy, provides some context for the subject of ethically challenged politicians and the Shumlin controversy. http://www.vermontnewsguy.com/ethical-quandary

Oct. 21. Shumlin campaign launches strong counter attack on the “most-ethically-challenged” allegations.
http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/21/shumlin-dubie-has-launched-most-negative-campaign-vermont-has-ever-seen/

Oct. 22. In Vermont Public Radio interview, state Sen. Dick Mazza, a moderate Democrat, tells reporter John Dillon some legislators he knew who filled out the 7Days survey treated it as a “joke.”
http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/89081/

Oct. 23. Norwich, Vt. direct mail copywriter Josh Manheimer, posts the video “When Pigs Fly” on his youtube channel, anyonebutdubie, ridiculing Dubie’s most-ethically-challenged claims against Shumlin and questioning Dubie’s temperament.
http://www.youtube.com/user/AnyoneButDubie

Oct. 23. Burlington Free Press reporter Nancy Remsen reports on Shumlin and Dubie’s last televised debate on WCAX, during which Dubie stands by his “ethically-challenged” charge and again cites the 7Days survey as proof.
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=2010101023021

Oct. 23. Controversy goes national with David Gram’s AP report of the WCAX debate.
http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=213&sid=2070990

Oct. 25. VTdigger.org’s Anne Galloway posts her investigative roundup of all the most questionable campaign tactics both campaigns have employed, including the widely circulated link to the Dubie campaign’s Web list of “Peter Shumlin’s Top Ethical lapses,” which includes the 7Days survey findings.

Oct. 27. In a Mark Johnson WDEV radio interview, columnist and reporter Shay Totten of 7Days defends publication of the survey, repeating co-publisher Routly’s argument that its coverage contained adequate context for readers, and newspapers can’t be held responsible for how politicians use news stories for their own ends.
http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/10/28/102710-totten-pt-2.aspx

Oct. 29. Jerry Skapof of Manchester Center, in a strongly-worded letter to the editor of the Bennington Banner, deplores Dubie’s most-ethically-challenged attack on Shumlin, saying it has tarnished Dubie’s “nice-guy” image.

Oct. 29. Dave Gram’s AP account of a libel suit filed by a Vermont businessman against the Dubie campaign and its manager, Corry Bliss, (involving a different matter) lands on Bloomberg’s Businesweek Web site and others. The article also mentions the Dubie campaign’s list of Shumlin’s 11 “most ethical lapses.”
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9J5K29O0.htm

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Peter Shumlin gives victory speech.

Vermont was immune to the red-hot anti-incumbent fever that gripped the nation on Election Day. Voters instead turned the state a deeper shade of royal blue.

Hawaii, it turns out, was the only other state to elect as many Democrats to office, according to retired Middlebury professor Eric Davis.

Vermonters not only kept the so-called “bums” in for statewide office (not a single incumbent lost), but they also backed President Barack Obama in exit polls, according to Chris Graff, a former journalist and political commentator, who is now an executive with National Life Insurance Co.

Nearly 60 percent of Vermont voters said they approved of the way the president is handling his job. Nationally, Obama’s approval rating after the mid-term election is about 47 percent, according to The Gallup Organization.

“I think if you analyze the returns, Vermont was just about totally immune from the wave that swept the country,” Graff said. “I think we felt that during the fall, and didn’t see any evidence of Tea Party anti-incumbent fever, and to have it proven that way — while all across the country voters going the Republican way — that was a surprise. Vermont truly is an island.”

Congressional Democratic incumbents Rep. Peter Welch and Sen. Patrick Leahy hardly needed to put up a fight in Vermont. Everywhere else, longstanding senators and representatives were in a battle for survival that many, especially in the Midwest, lost to Republicans.

Chris Graff

http://www.politico.com/2010/maps/#/Senate/2010

The biggest color swap in Vermont was in the governor’s office. A gubernatorial victory had eluded the grasp of Democrats for eight years, but on Election Day the seat fell to Peter Shumlin – by a mere 4,331 votes, according to the official Nov. 9 tally from the Vermont Secretary of State’s office. (Republican Brian Dubie conceded last week. Because Shumlin didn’t hit the 50 percent mark, under the Constitution the Legislature must vote by secret ballot to confirm him.)

In open contests for statewide office, Republican Phil Scott of Middlesex was the only winner. With the exception of State Auditor, Tom Salmon, all of the re-elected incumbents happened to be Democrats.

Though eight legislative races are subject to potential recounts, the Vermont Statehouse is still held by a Democratic “supermajority,” as outgoing Gov. Jim Douglas likes to put it.

Where does the Vermont GOP go from here?

Davis says the Republicans are falling into a “trap”: Their base is shrinking. The GOP’s core constituents live in parts of the state – namely Rutland County and rural northern Vermont (including the Northeast Kingdom) – where population is stagnant or falling.

The Democrats, meanwhile, hold the fastest growing geographic zones of the state – Chittenden County and the Upper Valley along the Connecticut River, according to Davis.

In addition, exit polls indicate there is an education gap, Davis said.

The GOP’s base consists largely of lower- and middle-income voters who don’t have college degrees, while the fastest growing group of voters in Vermont is college educated – and they voted overwhelmingly for Shumlin in this latest election.

Garrison Nelson, UVM political science professor

“Their base is a smaller and smaller share of the electorate,” Davis said. “If the GOP nominates social conservatives like Brian Dubie, it’s going to be difficult for them to win.”

Nelson blamed Dubie’s loss on two factors: negative campaigning that turned off voters and the statistical improbability of any lieutenant governor seizing the Fifth Floor.

“The Republican Governors Association has a basic playbook: attack, attack, attack,” Nelson said. “Corry (Bliss) was the enforcer. Brian takes orders–he’s a military guy–and that was my concern about him being governor.”

The late U.S. Sen. Robert Stafford of Rutland, who died in 2006, was the last Vermont politician to win a gubernatorial seat from the post of lieutenant governor — in 1958. Since then, 12 lieutenant governors, including Dubie, have lost bids for governor.

Nelson said the role is akin to serving as a school traffic cop. “It doesn’t prepare you for anything,” Nelson said. “You preside over the Senate, but you don’t vote.”

Eric Davis

Graff said over the last 10 years, it has become extremely difficult for Republicans to win statewide office. Gov. Jim Douglas is the notable exception.

“It takes incredible message discipline,” Graff said. “For a Republican to win, everything has to go right in Vermont, and that’s why I was surprised that Brian Dubie was as close as he was to winning. The odds were against him. I never felt this was Brian Dubie’s race to lose. I don’t think a Republican in this state is ever in that position.”

Graff said Dubie was helped by the economy in this election, but going forward, unless Shumlin “makes a serious mistake, he’ll be governor a long time.”

In part that’s because his timing is good, Graff said. There will be budget difficulties this year and next, he predicted, but probably, by the end of his first term “people will feel better about the direction the state is going.” And it won’t necessarily be because of Shumlin’s policies. “He’ll reap the benefit of a turnaround (in the economy) most people see coming in the next few years.”

Graff attributed Republican Lt. Gov.-elect Scott’s clear victory to his appealing personal style. “Vermonters vote based on personality, not party,” he said.

Republican Jason Gibbs’ loss took Davis by surprise. The perception that Gibbs wanted to use the secretary of state’s office as a stepping stone to even higher office may have worked against him, Davis said. Jim Condos, on the other hand, told voters that his only ambition was to be the secretary.

Another factor that may have shifted the race away from Gibbs was a radio ad that featured Republican state Sen. Vince Illuzzi backing Condos, Davis said.

The unsolicited advice department

Now that the die has been cast and the Shumlin’s transition team is working on recommendations for administration appointments, all eyes are on the $112 million budget gap the governor-elect and lawmakers must resolve in the coming legislative session.

Nelson said it’s going to be a tough year.

“They’re going to have to cut something,” Nelson said. “Democrats don’t like to cut programs, and taxes are going to have to be raised.”

Graff said although Shumlin knows what he’s facing because he has gone through difficult budget cycles as Senate president pro tem, in his new role as governor he will, for the first time, be responsible for creating the budget.

“The Legislature plays around edges when they make changes to a governor’s budget,” Graff said. “Shumlin wants to change the priorities of state government, and doing that in the tough budget year he faces will be difficult.”

Shumlin will have a harder time balancing this budget “than Douglas would if he were in office,” Graff said, because the current budget reflects Douglas’ priorities.

Graff said Shumlin will have to choose a new director for the Agency of Human Services, for example, who will reflect his administration’s priorities. (The state spends about $1 billion a year on government services for poor, elderly, disabled and mentally ill Vermonters, and it’s an area that has been targeted for cuts under the Douglas administration.)

Graff said a good sign is Shumlin’s appointment to his transition team of Susan Bartlett, the former Senate Appropriations chair; former Gov. Howard Dean; and Liz Bankowski, former chief of staff for Gov. Madeleine Kunin — “seasoned folks who have seen everything.”

“(Susan Bartlett) is as tough a budget person as you can get,” Graff said. “Susan in her campaign was much more negative talking about what the state was going to face than Shumlin was. It’ll be interesting to see how the arguments and debates work themselves out.”

Graff said Republicans and Democrats alike have a “tremendous respect” for Bankowski. Graff described Dean as “the most fiscally conservative governor in 40 years.”

“For him (Dean) to be willing to help Peter Shumlin to become governor is a great assist,” Graff said.

“(Dean) took Dick Snelling’s plan and made it even more conservative,” Graff said. “(He) helped the state come out of fiscal crisis of the early 1990s…pretty driven to balance the budget.”

Dean, who was governor for 11 years (the longest serving in the state’s history since Thomas Chittenden held the office in the 18th century), brings a perspective to the team no one else has, according to Graff.

“For him to be willing to help Peter Shumlin to become governor is a great assist,” Graff said.

The conciliatory nature of the transition is very important, Graff said.

Bartlett is working closely with Neale Lunderville, Gov. Douglas’ secretary of administration, and Jim Reardon, the current commissioner of the Department of Finance and Management.

Graff noted that Douglas pledged in a press conference last week not to be critical of the new governor.

“Dean made that pledge, too,” Graff said. “It’s a great tradition because you don’t want former governors nitpicking everything. It’s good for them to leave the building and get out of the way.”

Davis speculated that Bartlett will propose new one-time revenue infusions without raising broad-based taxes. He said he expects that the Vermont Tax Commission’s proposals to reorganize the way taxes are collected will create additional revenues as well. A tax on Internet sales, for example, would help fill the budget gap, according to Davis.

“(Shumlin) will squeeze where possible, but he’ll look at new initiatives to close the gap,” Davis said.

Davis predicts that Shumlin will try to incorporate Bartlett, along with fellow Democrats former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and unsuccessful auditor candidate Doug Hoffer, into his administration. He also suspects that Alex MacLean, Shumlin’s campaign manager, will become his press secretary.

“I see Alex as on much the same career path as Andrew Savage (Peter Welch’s legislative assistant),” Davis said. “She knows the press.”

Of the existing administration officials, only one made Davis’ list of likely survivors in the new administration: David Dill, Transportation Agency secretary. Dill served in the Dean administration and has a reputation as a professional bureaucrat without political baggage, according to Davis.

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Town by town map of gubernatorial race results, with 99 percent reporting. Graphic by David Healy

This map is based on final unofficial results from several media sources, with 99 percent of municipalities reporting. David Healy of Stone Environmental in Montpelier contributed the map to VTdigger.org.

Town by town map of the governor’s race results, with 99 percent of towns reporting. Graphic by David Healy

To see what VTdigger.org readers had to say about the candidates and election night, see our Live Blog.
For the most recent results for the races for Vermont lieutenant governor, secretary of state and auditor, click here and scroll down.

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Shumlin, right, celebrates his victory with Alex MacLean, his campaign manager

Speculation ran high on election night that the governor’s race would end up in a recount, or in the hands of the Vermont Legislature if neither candidate attained the constitutional minimum of 50 percent of the vote.

While results of the gubernatorial election were still too hazy in the wee hours of Wednesday morning for declaration of a winner, the smoke cleared in the light of day. At about 9:30 a.m., Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie announced he would concede the race to his Democratic rival, Sen. Peter
Shumlin.

In the wake of seven weeks of vitriolic campaigning, Dubie pledged to “work with Sen. Shumlin and offer any support I can as lieutenant governor in helping him assume his new responsibilities.”

Shumlin, in turn, thanked Dubie for his commitment to public service.

At a press conference held at his campaign headquarters, Dubie told reporters he wouldn’t seek a recount. He asked his supporters to unite around Shumlin in the transition period as the governor-elect comes to terms with the state’s $112 million budget gap.

Dubie said: “I want to reiterate my appreciation for the 111,000 Vermonters who supported my candidacy for governor and trying to help me make Vermont … an even better state, the time now is to accept the will of the voters … and to call for Vermonters to unite around our new governor.
I think the best thing for me to do as a fellow Vermonter … is to say how can I help.”

Shumlin gives victory speech, Nov. 3, 2010

With his wife, Penny, standing by his side, Dubie defended the tenor of his battle with Shumlin, which led to complaints about undue negativity.

The lieutenant governor said he knew from the beginning it would be a close race, and he said he had no regrets. He declared: “We ran an issue-oriented campaign.”

Two and a half hours later at a victory rally, Shumlin gave a shout-out to his opponent: “We were friends before this campaign, and we’ll be friends going forward, and I thank him for his service.”

Shumlin told an audience of more than 100 well-wishers that he would work with Vermonters from all parties.

“Mostly, I want to thank Vermonters … who invited us into their living rooms, who talked to us on Main Street, who met us across this state and talked about their dreams and their visions for a better future,” Shumlin said. “Those are the folks I promise I will work for every single day. We do not care if you are a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, a Progressive or any of the above.”

On Thursday, Shumlin will announce his transition plans, and he is expected to name his transition team.

The governor’s race was one of the most expensive in history, with hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on advertising by out-of-state entities, including the Republican Governors Association, which spent more than $500,000 on ads for Dubie, and the Democratic Governors Association, which purchased $1 million in advertising for Shumlin.

Around the country, Democratic gubernatorial candidates fared poorly.

Republicans gained 10 new governorships. The GOP now holds 34 out of 50 seats, The New York Times reported.

As of Wednesday evening, Shumlin had 117,105 votes, and the number of ballots cast for Dubie was 113,227, with 97.7 percent of polling places reporting, according to WCAX.
Official results won’t be available until Nov. 9, according to the Vermont Secretary of State’s office.

You all have done extraordinary work. I cannot tell you how humbled I am to be the governor-elect. There is no state better than Vermont.

I received a call from Brian Dubie this morning. I want to think Brian for his commitment to Vermonters.

We were friends before this campaign and we’ll be friends going forward, and I thank him for his service.

I am extraordinarily grateful to have parents who taught us that you always keep trying, you always reach out to help others. The more you reach out the more you can do and giving us the confidence to do that.

Mostly I want to thank Vermonters … who invited us into their living rooms who talked to us on Main Street, who met us across this state and talked about their dreams and their visions for a better future. Those are the folks I promise I will work for every single day. We do not care if you are a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, a Progressive or any of the above. I have worked hard all of my life to get tough things done. We have tough things to do and today we begin that effort for every single Vermonter, every single day to make your future better — that starts today.

I think of the two women that we saw … in Rutland at the Halloween parade. I started working the sidelines and in my way I started talking to Vermonters and as we stopped, there were two women that told the story of this campaign — why we have worked so hard to be where we are right here at this moment. They were two women roughly 45. One of them said to me, what are you going to do for me? I’ve lost my job. I’ve lost my hope. I’ve lost my financial security. I want to know what you’re going to do for me. Her sister said, and I want to know what you’ll do for me. I want to start a new business. I have an idea but I have no capital, and every time I turn for capital I am told no. What will you do for me?

Across this state as we have traveled and talked and listened … the story has been continuous and consistent … the middle class has been kicked in the teeth, watched their incomes drop, their bills mount. They can’t keep up. They’re fearful that they cannot send their kids to college that they cannot pay their mortgages that they cannot retire. That their dream to succeed in Vermont may not happen in the way that they had hoped. That’s why we’re going to fight for every single day for the next two years to make their lives better.

Let’s close the door on those who are doom and gloom about Vermont’s future.

I know there is no better place in the world to run a business, to raise a family, to live. Our opportunity is extraordinary, and it’s our responsibility to seize that opportunity.

It’s in jobs, it’s in building our small businesses. It’s in lifting the incomes of those who have been kicked in the teeth. It’s about harnessing the opportunity as we get off our addiction to oil. It’s about building manufacturing, it’s rebuilding our farms.

It’s making Vermont the efficiency state and keeping those dollars in the state. … It’s about renewable energy. It’s about biotech. It’s about technology. We’re going to get there by making Vermont the state that tackles the real problems small businesses and Vermont families face. Health care costs? We’re going to tackle it. Internet access to every last mile? We’re going to deliver it. A tax structure that grows wealth and grows jobs? We’re going to get it done. A workforce that is second to none to anyone else in the world. From early childhood education to higher education that’s our responsibility, that’s our mandate, that’s how we’re going to work better to get it done.

Only in the Green Mountain state, in a sea of discouraging news nationally, would Vermonters come together and say, we believe it, we have hope, we think we can manage our own destiny. We believe we can beat the other 49 states to the economic opportunity for a better future for our children, to a better future for the two women in Fair Haven who talked to us on Saturday night.

Let’s do it together. We start today.

I’ve worked hard all my life. Today I go to work for every single Vermonter, every single Vermont family, every single Vermont small business. Let’s do it together. Thank you so much.

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Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. Photo by Terry J. Allen

Republican Lt. Gov. Dubie held a 9:30 a.m. press conference to announce his decision to concede the race to Democrat Sen. Peter Shumlin, according to WCAX.
According to a report from Ross Sneyd at VPR, Dubie won’t ask for a recount. http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/89183/
From Alex MacLean: Shumlin will hold a press conference at noon in the Adirondack Ballroom of the Burlington Hilton.
More to follow.

Read incomplete, unofficial results for statewide races from WCAX and VPR. Both sources say more than 90 percent of polling places have reported.
http://blackpearl.wcax.com/Election_Results/charts.php
http://www.vpr.net/news/campaign_2010/races.php

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Shumlin. Photo by Terry J. Allen

Editor’s note: This story is by Patrick Joy, a freelance writer who lives in Montpelier. More detail and video will be added on Wednesday.

UPDATE: As of 8:30 a.m. Wednesday morning, WCAX reported the vote count: Shumlin, 114,097 votes; Dubie, 110,543, with 95.6 percent of precincts reporting.

Republican faithful filed out of the Capitol Plaza Hotel after midnight, their party over but the largest race too close to officially call.

While Democrat Peter Shumlin held a 4,494 vote lead with 94.4% of precincts reporting, according to WCAX News, Republican candidate Brian Dubie left without a concession and Shumlin did not declare victory.

Shumlin, however, appeared poised to take the state’s top job and looked likely to surpass the 50% threshold to keep the race out of the legislature.

Dubie addressed his supporters just before midnight, and said the race was too close to call.

“I’m not here to declare victory – but to say thank you and express gratitude and appreciation to the people who contributed to this positive campaign,” he said.

Republican energy at the GOP party at the GOP headquarters rose and fell all night with the steady stream of poll numbers rolling in from news sources.

Dubie built an early lead, but Shumlin closed steadily as southern Vermont numbers trickled in. Anxious members of the party faithful wondered aloud whether Dubie could get enough independents to hold on, or whether Democratic turnout might be low enough to carry the day. For an hour, the lead traded back and forth with every update, often by only a handful of votes. Cheers went up every time Dubie was ahead, while Shumlin leads were met with frowns and boos.

Dubie, center, talks with a reporter

Supporters moved back and forth between the TV screens at the head of the room and the mobile station at the WCAX press table.

The crowd swelled to more than 300 just before Dubie spoke, and emptied steadily as the numbers slowed.

Dubie said he thought his message of economic solutions for a troubled economy resonated with voters.

“Vermonters are looking for solutions,” he said. “We are losing too many young Vermonters. We have been focused on a 10-point jobs plan.”

Dubie said he hoped to return to the podium later in the night, but apparently left for his home in Essex sometime just after midnight.

State Senator Phil Scott, R-Montpelier, said he had faith Dubie would prevail.

“I think he’ll pull this one out of the trenches,” he said.

Gov. James Douglas said there was nothing to do but wait.

“I talked with [Brian] earlier today and told him that there was nothing he could do [since the votes had been cast],” Douglas said.

Douglas carried that message with him to the podium.

“I am darn proud of him,” said Douglas. “Now, we’ll just keep biting our fingernails.”

VTDigger

Phil Scott, photo by Josh Larkin

Phil Scott kept the position of lieutenant governor in the Republican column last night, defeating Democrat Steve Howard, 50 to 42 percent, according to unofficial results from the WCAX Web site. Scott had 105,202 votes to Howard’s 87,182, with almost 95 percent of precincts reporting.

Reflecting on the possibility that Democrat Peter Shumlin will win the gubernatorial race, Scott said, “If it is Peter: I served for eight years with Peter. We have a great amount of respect for each other. I understand how he works and ticks.” Scott added that he strives to work to reach consensus; “I can attain that with Peter.”

Scott, state senator from Washington County since 2000, attributed his strong showing to his “unique background” which, he said “connected with a lot of people.” He said he appealed to the sporting community, contractors and racing buffs, among others.

Scott, 52, grew up in Barre and is best known as a stock-car driver at Barre’s Thunder Road SpeedBowl (his nickname is Flying Senator). He co-owns DuBois Construction Company.
Rep. Howard, who was not present at the Democratic headquarters on election night, said in a press release: “Phil ran a good race and I would like congratulate him on becoming the Lt. Governor Elect. This was a good race that focused on the issues and the future of the state of Vermont.”

In his victory speech, Scott reacted to a statement made by Vice President Joe Biden at a rally Monday that the Vermont Republican Party today is not the same Republican party of George Aiken, Vermont’s longtime senator.

“With all due respect to our vice president, I beg to differ,” said Scott. “I take exception to that. Whether you call us George Aiken, Dean Davis, Bob Stafford or Dick Snelling Republicans, we are Vermonters, too. And we are right here. And I am one of them.”

Scott called for Vermont Republicans and Democrats to work toward consensus.

“We do need to work together in a common sense fashion, in a Vermont way, to accomplish the goals we all share,” he said to a jubilant crowd.

Pundits had predicted that Scott would win by a comfortable margin over Howard, Progressive Marjorie Power, Socialist Boots Wardinski and Independent Peter Garritano.

With this win, Scott is the Republican with the highest profile political position in Vermont. He will be surrounded by Democrats in both the state house and senate.

“I’ve always been in the minority,” Scott said. “It’s nothing new to me. I think I can help.”

He explained, “I’m not combative. I can bridge gaps. I’m the right person to help with the transition.”

Scott said that he tried to keep negativity out of his campaigning.

“In the five races I’ve run, I’ve never run a negative campaign,” he said. “I don’t believe in doing it that way. If going to change tone of politics, in Washington — we have to look at ourselves first.”

Scott brought his Thunder Cow to GOP headquarters. As part of “The Cows Come Home to Burlington” community art project, artist Richard Wobby designed this bright green fiberglass cow. Thunder Cow will be auctioned off online on Nov. 6 with proceeds going to the Vermont Campaign to End Childhood Hunger.

Howard, 39, worked at his family’s general store in Rutland while growing up. He served a total of 12 years in the Vermont House, running for his first term while still a senior at Boston College. He served as chair of the Vermont Democratic Party, and is now a consultant for grassroots organizing and fundraising, working for a variety of nonprofits.

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