Dunsmore: An October Surprise in the Mideast?

Editor’s note: This op-ed by retired ABC News diplomatic correspondent Barrie Dunsmore first appeared in the Barre-Montpelier Times Argus and Rutland Herald Sunday edition. All his columns can be found on his website, http://www.barriedunsmore.com./

An “October Surprise” is a major news event calculated to affect the outcome of the November presidential election. Perhaps the first example was in October 1972, when then Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who for years had been negotiating to end the Vietnam War, declared “peace is at hand.” It turned out that it wasn’t. But President Richard Nixon won a landslide victory over Democratic Sen. George McGovern, and probably would have done so anyway.

In 1980 there were rumors that President Jimmy Carter was going to get the American hostages out of Iran shortly before the election, but Carter himself eventually squelched that story. Then came another strong rumor that Ronald Reagan’s Republicans had secretly made a deal with Iran for the hostages to be held until after the election. In fact the hostages were not released until the very moment Reagan was inaugurated — but no smoking gun for such a deal was ever found. In any event, most historians now believe that the way Carter mishandled the more than year-long hostage crisis was an important factor in making him a one-term president.

So what about October 2012? Well, if there is an October Surprise this election year, it could be an Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel and the U.S. had been planning a massive military exercise in October, involving a record number of troops and U.S. warships in the region. However Time Magazine is now reporting that while these annual war games will take place, the Pentagon is scaling them way back. Evidently the Obama administration didn’t want the Iranians — or the Israelis for that matter — to misconstrue this exercise as a prelude to an Israeli-American attack on Iran.

And yet, if Israel were to attack Iran in October – especially considering Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s total, unquestioning support for Netanyahu — how could President Obama not come to the side of Israel when the Iranians inevitably struck back?

It is certainly no secret that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has little respect for President Barack Obama. And he continues to insist that force is the only way to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power.

But Israel has neither the weapons nor the logistical support systems to successfully attack Iran on its own. For his part, President Obama believes more time must be given for tough international sanctions to take their toll – and for negotiations to play out. He is therefore resisting being dragged into another Middle East war — for the very persuasive reasons that such an unnecessary war would have huge human and economic costs for Americans – and would only delay, not end, Iran’s nuclear program.

And yet, if Israel were to attack Iran in October – especially considering Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s total, unquestioning support for Netanyahu — how could President Obama not come to the side of Israel when the Iranians inevitably struck back? America and Obama would be in a total no-win situation.

A number of serious analysts now fear that this October Surprise scenario could well take place. Among all the other major negatives, this would constitute an egregious overt effort by a foreign power to manipulate the American election results.

Comments

  1. Bob Stannard :

    Just what we need; another war in the Mid East.

    • Christian Noll :

      “Another war?”

      You mean there was a space somewhere in between the other wars?

      This isn’t “Another war.”

      Its the same one as before.

      It never ended.

  2. timothy price :

    “A number of serious analysts now fear that this October Surprise scenario could well take place. Among all the other major negatives, this would constitute an egregious overt effort by a foreign power to manipulate the American election results.”

    The US has been being manipulated by foreign powers for many years. It has come to the point where there will be a show-down between them or the people of the US and their Constitutional protections.

    The media, the lamestream media, as it has become known, is a mouthpiece for the NWO agenda and promotes their candidates.

    Associated Press has been identified, rightly or wrongly, as being owned by the Rothschild family. Others are quick to point out that AP is collectively owned and operated by its member newspapers. However, In looking at their board of directors, (see) http://www.ap.org/company/board-of-directors
    we can quickly see that there are a few HUGE newspaper publishing companies represented, and it is impossible for me to see who controls them. But my experience with AP has been that they will spin the news to support the NWO agenda and all US government policy for such. I have no reason to doubt that they are largely controlled by people with international allegiances. Just my opinion.

  3. Alex Barnham :

    The US and Israel need to give their military leaders some drug tests.

  4. Paula Schramm :

    “The US has been being manipulated by foreign powers for many years. It has come to the point where there will be a show-down between them or the people of the US and their Constitutional protections.”

    Timothy Price’s post got me to look up “New World Order ” in Wikipedia….perhaps I am one of the few who was rather ignorant of the history of the great waves and chains of conspiracy theorists connected to this phrase.
    Hmmm , could be, could be….. whichever set of conspiracies of which one happens to be speaking .

    Certainly is true that we commoners have little idea of what actually is going on in the halls of the rich and powerful. Just one question :
    Since everyone is talking about this possibility of Israel bombing Iran in October, does it really qualify as a “Surprise” ?
    Perhaps we should just start calling it an” October Stupidity”.

  5. Dan Hodge :

    Surely to GOD we wouldn’t go to yet ANOTHER war… just for the benefit of giving more war contracts to Dick Cheney and his crooked sidekicks that have ALREADY ruined our country under the Bush Administration. They devised and started all this war crap just to get the funding, contract all all the US economy jobs ect..in THEIR crooked corporate control.
    We can stand WITH Israel WITHOUT starting yet ANOTHER UNNECESSARY war. Let those defense contract guys have their time without jobs…. the rest of us have had to go through their hell… now it’s their turn

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