New hardiness zones show warming trend in Vermont

2012 USDA Hardiness Zone Map.

2012 USDA Hardiness Zone Map.

A recently updated version of the USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map provides strong evidence that some areas of Vermont have warmed since the map was last produced in 1990. Such a trend could have major implications for how Vermonters farm in the future.

The map, which divides the U.S. into zones based on an area’s annual coldest temperature, shows that much of Vermont has shifted into warmer hardiness zones. Also, researchers enlisted new technology to provide a more nuanced picture of the many microclimates in the state. The hardiness map is used by growers to help determine what to plant and by crop insurers to help determine policy.

Overall, the map shows a four to five degree warming trend across the nation in comparison to the 1990 map. Much of the country shifted into new hardiness zones, but Vermont has a more complicated zone layout than most states because of its variations in elevation. Still, the new Vermont map shows an unmistakable warming trend, including the first appearance in the state of zone 5b (-15 degrees to -10 degrees Fahrenheit) in the extreme southeast and southwest of the state. Also, the area encompassing the previous warmest zone, which before had stopped just north of Rutland, now runs all the way up to the northwest corner of the state. Meanwhile, the territory of the coldest zone, 3b (-35 degrees to -30 degrees Fahrenheit), has shrunk from most of the Northeast Kingdom to a few pockets of territory in Essex and Orleans counties.

It’s impossible not to think about climate change when looking at the 1990 and 2012 maps side by side, said David Wolfe, a soils and crops scientist at Cornell University.

“This is a real phenomenon and I think [the new map] kind of de-politicizes the whole story,” Wolfe said.

But it may be easy to assume the warming trend is happening faster than it really is by examining the differences between the two maps, said Chris Daly, an engineering professor at Oregon State University and director of the PRISM Climate Group, which created the map in conjunction with the USDA. The 1990 map reflected an usual cold spell in the ’70s, and it also inexplicably encompassed a shorter timespan than previous maps, which usually encompass 30 years of data. Climate change is happening, Daly said, but there is no evidence to believe the next map will show as high of a spike in temperatures.

“We’d all be toast,” Daly said. “It’s obviously not going to happen that quickly.”

The map averages a region’s coldest annual temperature by using data collected from weather stations. But the weather data often has been too incomplete to create more than a broad picture of temperatures in a region, said Jan Curtis, a climatologist for the National Water and Climate Center.

“You’d need millions of stations across the nation. Obviously, we didn’t have that,” said Curtis, who helped evaluate the PRISM model.

Regional temperature variations created by heightened elevation or ocean breezes often were ignored by mapmakers for a lack of data, said Daly. Often, mapmakers drew straight lines across areas of high elevation.

“These climate maps used to be hand-drawn,” he says. “You’d get something different every time you did it.”

For the current map, researchers combined recorded data with computer models that can predict what effect elevation and proximity to the coast might have on temperatures. The result is a map showing more zone diversity, including pockets of cooler temperatures in small microclimates a few miles west of both Rutland and Middlebury.

The new map is already garnering positive reviews in the growing community for being more user-friendly and more accurate than previous maps. For the first time, growers can go online and click a region on the map or enter a zip code to get a close look at local hardiness zones.

But neither Daly nor Wolfe believe it will greatly change what farmers plant because many growers already have been betting against the previous USDA map for some time. In New York, according to Wolfe, entrepreneurs began growing European wine grapes that need milder temperatures than the region was zoned for; these grape growers bet correctly that the local climate would continue to warm enough to sustain them. And soybean production has increased in northern New York from 40,000 acres to 250,000 acres in recent years, which has only been possible with the new trend of warmer temperatures.

“People have been engaging in what has been known as ‘zone-denial’ for such a long time,” says Daly. “The map has really been more of a confirmation of what they know.”

But while Northeast farmers have been leaning on the promise of warmer weather for a longer growing season, they also must come to terms with some of the other effects of climate change. Lynda Prim, a fruit and vegetable technical advisor with the Northeast Organic Farming Association of Vermont, said many farmers learned difficult lessons with the massive flooding in 2011.

“We saw a lot of people be unprepared for a major event like [Hurricane] Irene,” Prim said.

Prim has been advising farmers to prepare for the unexpected, be it flooding or unstable temperatures, by drawing up flood plans and using equipment to protect crops against unstable temperatures.

“The zone is one thing, but you still have to look at the weather as fairly unsettled,” Prim said.

Another concern, said Wolfe, is that new weeds and pests have been moving north with the warmer weather. Farmers can look southward somewhat to see what’s coming, but they shouldn’t necessarily assume that an entire ecosystem will transfer north. Natural enemies of pests and invasive weeds may not make the trip, he said.

Wolfe and Prim both noted that the hardiness zone map is just one tool to predict weather patterns. It only looks at the extreme cold temperatures in a region. But it makes for a good yardstick of the changes that may come because extreme cold can be a game-changer.

“It only takes one or two super-cold nights to kill off a lot of insects or plants,” Wolfe said.

Craig Idlebrook is a freelance writer in New England.

Craig Idlebrook

Comments

  1. Willem post :

    There have been about 14 temperature ups and downs during the past 10,000 years. The recent ones are the Roman Warm Period, warmer than at present, which aided the rise of the Roman Empire.
    This period was followed by a cold period, also called the Dark Ages, which coincided with the decline of the Roman Empire, migrations, such as of the Huns.
    This period was followed by the Medieval Warm Period, as warm as at present, which gave rise to the Renaissance.
    This period was followed by The Little Ice Age, ice up to 8 feet thick on the River Thames in the 1700s.
    This period was followed by the Present Warm Period starting about 1860, which has seen a temperature rise of about 0.8 Centigrade thus far, a population explosion from 1 billion in 1900 to 7 billion thus far, and unprecedented material wealth.
    During 13 of the ups and downs the CO2 varied less the 20 ppm.
    Food for thought.

  2. Ron Eberhardt :

    William Post comments, “During 13 of the ups and downs the CO2 varied less the 20 ppm.
    Food for thought.”
    So what? Yes, there have been climate changes without significant CO2 changes in the atmosphere. That has nothing to do with the fact that putting more CO2 into the atmosphere increases the rate and severity of climate change above and beyond whatever “natural cycles” may be occurring. His comment brings to mind the person who rationalizes doing nothing to take care of his health “because we are all going to die anyway”.
    Exercising no control because we do not have complete control is an abdication of our responsibility to act.

    • Karl Riemer :

      That may be misinterpreting the post. If significant climatic changes and concomitant social upheavals have occurred without significant changes in greenhouse gases in the recorded past, how much greater, more rapid and longer lasting will be the effects of our current situation, in which other influences are being swamped by a dramatic influx of greenhouse gases? No one knows the answer. It could be cataclysmic, it could be survivable. The one thing we do know beyond a shadow of doubt is that what our grandparents had justification for saying, we do not, for changes now, unlike then, are overwhelmingly due to our influence and can only become cataclysmic with our permission.

  3. Kelly Stettner :

    My grandparents used to say, “If ya don’t like the weather in New England, wait 5 minutes.” That’s still true. We humans keep expecting things to stay the same; but the very nature of nature is change and adaptation. There is no such thing as “settled” when it comes to understanding how our planet works. Get used to the new normal, because it’s going to change again in a few years, whether we like it or not, with or without our permission, our acknowledgement, and our influence.

  4. George Plumb :

    Carbon emissions have other impacts besides climate change.

    Our oceans are rapidly becoming more acidic and who knows what this is going to result in besides the loss of species and an important source of protein for our population of seven billion.
    http://www.csmonitor.com/Science/2012/0302/Ocean-acidification-worst-in-300-million-years-study-finds-video

    Why not exercise the precautionary principle in respecdt to other life on earth and future generations of the human species?

  5. Willem post :

    The EIA estimates a greater than 50 percent increase in energy use by 2035, including a greater than 50 percent increase in fossil fuels.
    The CO2 upward trend is ” baked in” for the rest of this century.
    CO2 contributes only a small percentage, about 2-3 percent, to global warming. It is not anywhere near what RE promoters would like you to believe for their business reasons. Water vapor contributes a much greater percentage, about 95 percent, to global warming.
    More serious problems are the population explosion and resultant overuse/misuse of the land for agriculture and overfishing of the seas, and the energy use per person or per $ of GDP.
    Increased energy efficiency and population reduction are more realistic measures, not producing renewable energy at 3-5 times annual average grid prices.
    China just announced a new 5-year plan that will de-emphasize wind and solar energy and increase the emphasis on nuclear and hydro energy.

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