Inside the Golden Bubble: Lawmakers prepare to tackle Irene-affected budget

Editor’s note: Inside the Golden Bubble is an occasional column about the Statehouse.

Lawmakers came back to the Statehouse in force on Thursday for a daylong legislative “briefing.” The seats in the House Chamber were nearly full and a number of senators sat in the gallery to hear the Shumlin administration’s updates on the state’s recovery from Tropical Storm Irene, a summary of the revenue forecast, the budget gap analysis and an overview of the status of the governor’s two main objectives – health care reform and the development of a comprehensive energy plan.

The “listening session” gave way to vintage Statehouse circus in certain expected ways. Lobbyists, lawmakers and administration officials wandered the halls and caught up with old allies. There were two lunchtime press conferences – the Senate Democratic leadership endorsed Sen. Tim Ashe, D/P-Burlington, one of four Democratic candidates for mayor of Burlington, and the Vermont Energy Partnership announced that its members were unhappy with the energy plan (no surprise there as the administration omitted Vermont Yankee as a major source of electricity, and the partnership is largely funded by Entergy Corporation, the owner of the nuclear power plant).

But generally, the mood was more subdued than usual. The cloud hanging over the proceedings was the lingering doubt over the impact of Irene on the state’s budget, transportation priorities, and the long term reconstruction prospects for the 45 communities badly hit by Irene.

The sunny first-day-of-the-session, old-home-day atmosphere was not in evidence. Clutches of lawmakers gathered in corners of the cafeteria and the hallways for private discussions, and the questions on the floor of the House were delivered without the usual zest of anticipated debate. (The session was informational only, so the floor discussion was limited to questions.) The speeches were given at the 30,000 foot level, and the thank yous to state workers were a subtext of the themes sounded throughout.

Sen. John Campbell, D-Quechee, asked lawmakers to give the administration a round of applause for Jeb Spaulding, secretary of the Agency of Administration, and Sue Minter, deputy secretary of VTrans. Twice, the applause ramped up to a standing ovation.

In opening remarks, Campbell said, “It’s so wonderful that politics didn’t have a play in this It was all about Vermont and what Vermonters can do for one another and as somebody who is a semi native of this state I can’t tell you how proud I am of the courage and fortitude that was displayed during this time.”

Shumlin administration officials said they will soldier on with the advancement of the governor’s political priorities, namely single-payer health care and an aggressive push for renewable energy, but there is no question that Irene is a “game-changer.”

Both the Speaker of the House Shap Smith and Spaulding emphasized that Irene will dominate the legislative session and the administration’s work for the foreseeable future. Neither Smith nor Spaulding believe the natural disaster could overtake the governor’s priorities, but if the legislative briefing is any indication, it’s hard to imagine that Irene won’t blow in as a wreaker of havoc of the legislative kind come January. Lawmakers spent several hours listening to the administration and the Joint Fiscal Office describe the scope of the damage — to the state’s infrastructure and potentially to the state budget, and transportation and capital bill priorities.

Seven committees in the House of Representatives will take up legislation addressing the aftermath of Irene, Smith said in an interview. Natural Resources and Energy and Fish and Wildlife will look at streambed alterations made after the natural disaster. Judiciary will examine the impacts of river flooding on titles, property boundaries and foreclosures. Ways and Means has already passed a $2 million to $4 million tax abatement bill out of committee. Corrections and Institutions will make recommendations for the state office complex and the Vermont State Hospital. The Appropriations committee will weigh the budget implications and Transportation will prioritize long-term road reconstruction.

When asked if he thought Irene would be all-consuming, Smith said, “No.” Spaulding reiterated that stance in his address to lawmakers.

“The governor has made it clear to me and our entire cabinet that our highest priority, our major focus from the day Irene arrived is putting ourselves in a stronger position than we started,” Spaulding said. “But the administration is going to be juggling more than one ball. We cannot let our agenda go by the wayside.”

A few of the balls in the air at the moment include health care reform, job creation, major changes in the state’s relationship with the University of Vermont, and the comprehensive energy plan, Spaulding said.

“We cannot say that just because we’ve been dealt a setback that we’re going to lose focus for the rest of the picture,” Spaulding said. “I want to assure you that the administration has Irene as our highest priority but we intend to follow through with the rest of our intentions at the same time and we are confident we can do so with your help.”

On the Irene front, the administration is looking at new relocation options and construction of an office complex for state workers; a new state hospital of some description; budget recommendations; and possible changes to the Capital Bill.

Many of these changes will require legislative approval.

Spaulding said the administration is “fully aware this needs to be a full partnership with the legislature.”

“We are not trying to usurp the authority of the legislature,” Spaulding said. “We are trying to act in our realm and move things forward.”

The shape of the session

The legislative agenda for the session hasn’t been completely fleshed out yet, Smith said. He is working with the chairs of committees to finalize the session priorities. But he ticked off a list of measures in addition to the Irene legislation that the House will take up.

The budget again this year will be difficult to resolve. As it stands, the Joint Fiscal Office is estimating a $76 million budget shortfall that doesn’t include Irene impacts or federal cuts to the Low-Income Heating Assistance Program and other federally funded state programs. When Congress will pass a budget is an open question at this point given the partisan rancor in Washington, Smith said. The state’s budget woes for fiscal year 2013, however, are not insurmountable in his view.

“Based on the gaps we’ve had to close over the last three years, it keeps going down in size and so I think it’s more manageable than it’s been over the last three years,” Smith said. “It’s’ going to be difficult and I would expect that we will have to address some of the shortfall by going to some of the bonding capacity we have. Clearly we’re going to have to make more reductions in the budget, and once we look at those two things we have to see what the remaining gap will be. We have to leave all of the options on the table.”

The gap, he said, is soft, and it’s possible that revenues could be higher than anticipated. Medicaid costs have also been falling. The numbers will be firmer, he said, when the session starts in January.

As Rep. Ann Manwaring, D-Wilmington, put it: “The gap is higher than I thought it would be, but the good news this year is the bad news is only half as bad as last year.”
Smith said the House will likely take up legislation to address prescription drug abuse and fraud; farm-to-plate issues; new solid waste management rules; and the impact of budget decisions “on those I consider to be less well off.”

“I would expect us to spend a fair amount of time on redistricting,” Smith said.
A Death with Dignity bill is contingent on whether the Senate has the votes for passage.

“The question in my mind is whether Senate is going to take it up and pass it,” Smith said. “You can be sure if I bring it to the floor of House of Representatives that it will pass.”

Smith is not keen to pass a bill nixing teachers’ strikes and board imposition of contracts. Both Gov. Peter Shumlin and Armando Vilaseca, commissioner of the Department of Education, have expressed interest in legislation limiting the amount of time students are out of session because of strikes in the wake of the recent dispute in Bennington.

“It doesn’t seem that it’s an issue that demands a lot of legislative attention at this point in time,” Smith said. “I haven’t had a chance to talk with the chair of the education committee about that yet and if she thinks it would be appropriate to take up that debate we’ll revisit that issue.”

Rep. Johanna Donovan, D-Burlington, chair of House education has said she is pro-union and would not take up such a measure in the House.

Editor’s note: A write-thru of this story was posted at 6:47 a.m. Nov. 11.