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General Fund receipts ahead of projections by $20M

PRESS RELEASE June 13, 2011
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: Jeb Spaulding
(802) 828-3322 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting              (802) 828-3322      end_of_the_skype_highlighting
Montpelier, VT – Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding Announces Vermont’s May Revenue Figures – General Fund and Transportation Fund Exceed Targets; Education Fund Falls Slightly Below Target for the Month.

General Fund

Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding released the May 2011 General Fund Revenue results today. May is the eleventh month of fiscal year (FY) 2011. General Fund revenues totaled $63.39 million for May 2011, and were +$7.91 million or 14.25% above the $55.48 million consensus revenue forecast for the month. May year to date General Fund Revenues were $1038.39 million or +$19.82 million or +1.95% ahead of target. Compared to the same period for the prior fiscal year, FY 2011 GF results are 11.10% ahead of FY 2010, but remain below the pre-recession FY 2008 results by -4.87%.

Secretary Spaulding said, “We are pleased that May was the third consecutive month where General Fund receipts finished ahead of official projections. I am now quite confident that FY 2011 General
Fund revenues will be ahead of target by $20 million or so. However, there is a good deal of uncertainty globally and we cannot conclude at this point that revenues for the next fiscal year will see a similar uptick.”

Current targets reflect the Fiscal Year 2011 Consensus Revenue Forecast adopted by the Emergency Board at their January 14, 2011 meeting. Statutorily, the State is required to revise the Consensus Revenue Forecast two times per year, in January and July; the Emergency Board
may schedule interim revisions if deemed necessary. The Consensus Revenue Forecast for FY 2012 is scheduled for review at the July 21, 2011 Emergency Board Meeting.

Personal Income Tax (PI) receipts are the largest single state revenue source, and are reported Net-of- Personal Income Tax refunds. Net Personal Income Tax is comprised of PI Withholding Tax, PI Estimated Payments, PI Refunds Paid, and PI Other. PI Withholdings less PI Refunds accounts for
more than 60% of the annual net Personal Income Tax receipts. Net PI Receipts for May were recorded at $31.10 million, +$11.58 million or +58.29% ahead of the monthly target of $19.53 million. Year to
date PI receipts were $494.33 million, or +2.97% above target.

Corporate Income Taxes for May are also reported net-of refunds. May Corporate receipts of -$2.08 million, -$3.03 million or -319.62% fell below the monthly target of $0.95 million. Since most Corporate Taxes are paid on a quarterly basis, the largest months for Net Corporate Tax Receipts are
September, December, March and to a lesser extent June. May was expected to be a low month for Net Corporate Tax receipts, however, this month fell below even that reduced target. Despite the shortfall in
May, year to date net Corporate Income Tax receipts of $73.45 million remained ahead of target by +3.61%.

The consumption taxes results for May were mixed: Sales & Use Tax receipts of $15.00 million fell short of the monthly target by -$0.94 million (-5.87%); Rooms & Meals Tax receipts of $7.44 million exceeded target by +$0.08 million (+1.09%). On a year to date basis, both
consumption taxes hover around their targets: Sales & Use Tax, $199.38 million (+0.28%); Meals & Room Tax, $113.89 million (-0.06%).

The remaining non-major tax components include Insurance, Inheritance & Estate Tax, Real Property Transfer Tax, and “Other” (which includes: Bank Franchise Tax, Telephone Tax, Liquor Tax, Beverage Tax, Fees, and Other Taxes).
Gross Estate Tax receipts for May increased the amount by which this category exceeds 125% of target. In accordance with statute (16 V.S.A. §2885 (a)(2)), Estate Tax receipts above 125% of target are transferred to the Higher Education Trust Fund (HETF) for scholarships to Vermont
Students at Vermont institutions of Higher Education. Therefore, the monthly and year to date Estate Tax revenues shown in the chart below have been restated. The actual Gross year to date Estate Tax receipts of $34.50 million are shown in the attached General Fund Schedule 2, albeit
only $21 million is shown as available to the General Fund based on 16 V.S.A. §2885 (a)(2).

Secretary Spaulding noted, “As part of an overall effort to rebuild reserve funds to address potential severe federal reductions in FY 2012, the Governor and Legislature have provided that this year only the first $11 million over the 125% threshold will be transferred to the Higher
Education Trust Fund and the remainder will be added to a revenue shortfall reserve. That will likely add up to another $3 million or so to act as a buffer against some possible federal cutbacks.”

The results for the remaining non-major categories for May were as follows: Insurance Tax, $5.74 million (-2.47%); Property Transfer Tax, $0.64 million (+1.74%); and “Other”, $5.55 million (+9.64%). Year to date results for these categories were: Insurance Tax, $53.49 million
(+0.91%); Property Transfer Tax, $7.44 million (+5.32%); and “Other”, $73.11 million (-0.86%).

Transportation Fund
The non-dedicated Transportation Fund Revenue for May was also reported on by Secretary Spaulding. Total non-dedicated Transportation Fund receipts of $19.43 million for the month slightly exceeded target by +$0.09 million (+0.47%), against the monthly target of $19.33
million. The year to date non-dedicated Transportation revenue was $193.29 million versus the target of $192.89 million (+$0.40 million, +0.21%).

Individual Transportation Fund revenue receipts components for May were: Gasoline Tax, $4.66 million or -0.67% behind target; Diesel Tax, $1.34 million or +37.68% above target; Motor Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $4.62 million or -$1.38% below target; Motor Vehicle Fees, $7.44
million or -0.67% below target; and Other Fees, $1.36 million or -8.67% short of the monthly target. The May year to date Transportation Fund revenue results were: Gasoline Tax, $55.69 million or -0.52% short of target, Diesel Tax, $13.69 million or +2.01% above target; Motor
Vehicle Purchase & Use Tax, $44.41 million or +2.05% ahead of target; Motor Vehicle Fees, $63.65 million or -0.89% behind target; and Other Fees, $15.87 million or -0.66% below target.

Secretary Spaulding said, “The Transportation Fund, overall, is still on target, but just barely.

We are hopeful that it will come in at or remain slightly above target for FY 2011 which ends on June 30, 2011.”

The Secretary also reported on the results for the Transportation Infrastructure Bond Fund (“TIB”). TIB Fund Gas receipts for May were $1.45 million or +10.52% in excess of target;
year to date receipts of $14.93 million were -0.32% short of target. TIB Fund Diesel receipts were $0.17 million or +31.98% above the monthly target; year to date TIB Diesel receipts were
$1.64 million or -0.20% short of target. TIB Fund receipts are noted below the following table: General Fund By Major Element (In Millions)*

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