Sen. Peter Shumlin, Oct. 7, 2010, Essex, Vt.
Sometimes Sen. Peter Shumlin can’t seem to stop himself. He cracks jokes reflexively, in the way others might exhibit a nervous twitch or the habit of saying um. But lately, his tendency to poke fun at situations and other people, particularly his opponent, Brian Dubie, is getting him into trouble.
Case in point? A week ago Sunday night at the Vermont Press Association debate held at St. Michael’s College, the topic of decriminalizing small amounts of marijuana came up. Yours truly, at the behest of an audience member, put the question to the seven candidates of minor and major persuasion. All but Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie said yes, they would like to see Vermonters who possess negligible amounts of pot kept out of jail. The subject went around the table, and when the question came up — just what is a small amount of marijuana? — Shumlin turned to the crowd and said, “I believe they call them, a doobie.”
Lt. Gov. Dubie was not amused. In fact, he turned several shades of red and delivered a look of disgust in Shumlin’s general direction. The crowd tittered.
None of this is a laughing matter for the Dubie camp. It is, in fact, serious business. Corry Bliss, the Republican contender’s campaign manager, has relentlessly attacked Shumlin’s jokesterism.
Last week, WCAX dredged up a rap sheet on Shumlin from 2002. The senator was waiting in line at the Burlington International Airport when he made a wisecrack about shoe bombs to a Transportation Security Administration officer. The Burlington Police Department interviewed Shumlin, released him and filed an incident report on the matter.
Dubie brought up the shoe bomb joke in a debate on New England Cable News this week. “Vermonters are tired of jokes,” Dubie said.
In June, Shumlin flashed his state Senate ID card at a Vermont State Police officer after he was pulled over for speeding and joked about getting off the hook. The incident made prime-time news on WCAX then and again last month when the TV station requested a copy of the voided ticket – and canceled check – to make sure the ticket was paid. It had been.
Several days last week, the Dubie campaign called on Shumlin “to reveal which state trooper he joked with about ‘taking care of’ his speeding ticket.”
The latest affront to Team Dubie’s sense of fair play is an ad that portrays the lieutenant governor as Pinocchio . The latest affront to Team Dubie’s sense of fair play is an ad that portrays the lieutenant governor as Pinocchio. The commercial shows a rubbery wand growing out of the end of Dubie’s nose as news stories about instances in which the candidate has misrepresented facts flash across the screen.
Shumlin announced on Thursday at the Vermont League of Cities and Towns forum at the Essex Fairgrounds that he would take the ad down.
“We thought it was kind of funny, but apparently people didn’t laugh,” Shumlin said. “We’re going to run a positive campaign. People didn’t think it was funny. I apologize. I wanted to do Pinocchio to them before they did it to me, you know. They’re kind of being rough on me. I’m going to run a Vermont style
campaign. I wish Brian would do the same.”
Alex MacLean, his campaign manager, said the commercial will end its nine-day run, as scheduled, on major broadcast stations today.
MacLean defended the Pinocchio ad. “The fact remains our ads have been truthful,” she said. “Unlike Brian’s, they’re not based on spreading fear and scare tactics to garner votes.”
Shumlin, in turn, had asked Vermont television outlets to drop the Republican Governors Association ad “Peter Shumlin Can’t Be Trusted.”
“I do not want to be governor so much that I would undermine someone’s character, that I would tell untruths about them, on television, or that I would suggest that they’re not ethical,” Shumlin told members of the League. “I wouldn’t do that. I also would never say things that they would never do. I would never tell you that Brian’s going to release drug offenders, sex offenders into the streets. I know Brian Dubie. He wouldn’t do that. I know Peter Shumlin – he wouldn’t either.”
Is turnabout fair play? Not in Dubie’s book.
“For all the time Peter Shumlin has spent complaining about the tone of the race, he is admitting he is running a negative campaign that has gone too far,” Dubie campaign manager Corry Bliss said in a statement. “Once again, Peter Shumlin is apologizing for his poor sense of humor. First he claimed he was joking when he spoke to a state trooper about taking care of his speeding ticket; then we learned he was joking about having a shoe bomb at the security checkpoint at the Burlington Airport just months after 9/11; and now we learn he thought attacking someone’s character and distorting their physical appearance was funny. We would never put up an ad that distorts someone’s face. We are running a serious campaign based on the serious issues facing Vermont.”
Shumlin has three new ads coming out this week. “They draw a contrast between Brian Dubie’s vision and Peter’s plan to get Vermonters back to work,” MacLean said.
Outing of anyonebutdubie leads to paper chase
About that jokester thing. Last week we reported that Josh Manheimer is the somebody behind anyonebutdubie – the satirical videos that poke fun Brian Dubie.
Manheimer, who is not affiliated with the Democratic Governors Association, the Shumlin campaign or any other group, has been running ads on Google, Facebook and Green Mountain Daily to promote his video montages.
Turns out the man with a plan and a laptop may have to register with the state. Mike McShane, assistant attorney general, says under an electioneering communications provision of the campaign finance law, individuals who spend more than $150 on campaign ads are required to identify themselves even if they are not coordinating with anyone else.
“With the Internet you can do all sorts of stuff and not trigger a reporting requirement,” McShane said. “We have not tried to regulate that behavior.”
That said, McShane isn’t sure the state can regulate this kind of campaign finance expenditure known as the “lone pamphleteer exception” because “it becomes a 1st Amendment issue if they’re doing it for themselves and not coordinating.”
So what if someone anonymously posts campaign material online? How can the state identify sole actors who use, say, Google ads?
“With the Internet you can do all sorts of stuff and not trigger a reporting requirement,” McShane said. “We have not tried to regulate that behavior.”
Manheimer may or may not have to file as a political action committee – the Vermont Secretary of State’s office is consulting with the attorney general’s office. So far, Manheimer has spent $1,000 on video production and ads.
GOP grand total now nears $500,000 for Dubie
The GOP has been on a spending spree. So far, the Dubie campaign and organizations that support him, Green Mountain Prosperity and the Republican Governors Association, have spent a grand total of $497,929 as of Friday. GMP spent $212,852 on mass media buys on Sept. 28, Oct.1 and Oct. 8. Dubie and RGA have ponied up $95,587 and $189,490, respectively, since the last week of August.
On Friday, the Shumlin campaign had not reported any new buys. It has spent $63,829 on ads since Sept. 10. Green Mountain Future, a liberal 527 nonprofit organization, has spent $184,523 over the last month. Together, they have paid out $248,352 in advertising, about half that of their GOP counterparts.
The Vermont Republican Federal Election Committee spent $25,000 on media buys Friday for Len Britton, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate who is running against Democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy. Of that, $10,000 went to WCAX; $6,000 to WPTZ and $9,000 to Comcast for television commercials.
Haley Barbour, RGA
Mass media filings are now being reported on the Secretary of State’s Web site (thank you, David Crossman). The filings cite the source of the funding and to whom payment is directed, but the report does not require candidates or political action committees to say where they have expended the funds.
The Secretary of State’s office is in the middle of creating a searchable database for campaign finance reports, but don’t get your hopes up before the election. The system has to be tested, and it won’t be ready for prime time until after Nov. 2.
See related story: http://vtdigger.org/2010/10/06/on-the-money-gop-pac-blows-200k-on-ads-in-2-days-leahy-gives-away-155000/
Pollster says Shumlin’s chances of winning substantially higher
Fivethirtyeight.com pollster Nate Silver gives Shumlin a 78.4 percent chance of winning the election, and Dubie 21.6 percent chance. The margin of error is 7.7 percent.
Silver, who now reports for the New York Times, said on Oct. 5 that Shumlin and Dubie are in a dead heat in its weighted polling system for the total number of predicted votes on Election Day. Though Shumlin is ahead by six points, 52.4 percent to Dubie’s 46.3 percent, the margin of error is 8 percent.
Silver’s numbers are based on three Rasmussen Reports (Pulse Opinion Research) polls conducted in March, June and September. Silver uses a complex formula to determine the results, which shift over time – in spite of the fact that no new polls have been conducted.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor/vermont
GOP looks to take 30 out of 37 open gubernatorial seats
The House and Senate are the main focus these days, but several national sources are pointing to governorships across the country as another potential red tide for Democrats. The GOP, according to stateline.org, a Pew Research affiliate, could see another 1994-style, Contract for America-style, comeback.
The Republicans have the cash to do it. By the end of the second quarter, the RGA had raised a total of $28 million. . The Democratic Governors Association had about $17 million to spend, according to opensecrets.org.
National tax cuts redux
If you have a hard time visualizing big numbers – especially the scale of the Bush tax cuts for Americas ultra-wealthy — check out this white board analysis from the Austan Goolsbee, the chief economic advisor for the White House.
Vermont maintains AAA rating
Gov. Jim Douglas mentioned in passing on Saturday at a rally for Dubie that Vermont is “AAA-rated state.” Douglas said: “We’re fiscally strong compared to other states because of the great leadership we’ve had in Brian and Tom Salmon our auditor and our team at the finance department as well.”
On Sept. 30, Fitch’s Ratings gave the state the much sought after Triple A status for general obligation bonds. In its “rationale,” it cited the following reasons for the favorable rating:
–Vermont’s debt profile reflects nearly exclusive use of general obligation debt and amortizes rapidly. Debt ratios have declined in recent years and are now low; affordability planning is employed.
–The state’s revenue stream is diverse, and reserve funds remain funded at statutory maximum levels.
–Vermont’s economy has diversified but remains narrow and somewhat vulnerable to the cyclical manufacturing sector.
The key rating drivers?
–Maintenance of fiscal balance and conservative management practices.
–Maintenance of a low to moderate debt burden.
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100930006919/en/Fitch-Rates-Vermonts-82MM-GOs-AAA-Outlook
ICYMI: Illegal immigrants reportedly tended Lou Dobbs’ horses in Vermont
According to an investigative report by The Nation, former CNN host Lou Dobbs, who railed against employers who hire illegal workers, was himself guilty as charged. The Nation reported Mexicans, who had come to the U.S. without visas, were working on a horse farm in Warren, Vt., where his horses were stabled, and on his estate in West Palm Beach, Fla. In subsequent television interviews, Dobbs has adamantly denied knowing of the hires, saying they were made by subcontractors.
http://www.thenation.com/article/155209/lou-dobbs-american-hypocrite?page=0,2
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Wow – He did the nose job ad on Dubie because he was worried about them doing it to him first? I’m seeing a trend here. “What I think I am about to be accused of, I will the other guy first.” So he calls Dubie a liar; he says Dubie doesn’t care about regular Vermonters and the people of Vernon in particular. I’m thinking that what Shumlin accuses Dubie of, he sees in himself. Kind of a weird mirror.
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In a campaign that has seen negative ads from both sides of the slate, I find a moment of levity a refreshing change.
If Dubie takes himself so seriously that he can’t laugh at a remark that shows a bit of wit by his primary opponent, how does he expect to function in a town where at least one local merchant was displaying a bumper sticker that read:
“Smoke Dubie Vote Shumlin”
They’re just trying to keep the green in the Green Mountain State. lol