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  1. Like Brian Dubie, Senator Scott is calling for tax reductions to make Vermont more competitive. But it appears that their prescription is based on a flawed diagnosis.

    There are two problems here. First, as I noted in a reply to Mr. Dubie’s press release, the UConn study fails to account for the very significant differences in the products manufactured in each state (the author’s noted this and cautioned readers about it). This means the study is not an apples-to-apples comparison. Moreover, it’s not the cost of inputs that really matter, it’s the value added (which they did not measure).

    Second – and perhaps more importantly – the authors did not look at the data on changes in manufacturing jobs to determine whether the rankings are a good predictor of outcomes. Here are the figures for Northeast states and the three states found to have the lowest unit costs for manufacturing (#1 ranking is the most expensive and #50 is the cheapest).

    ranking and % of mfg. jobs lost `00 – `10

    1 -34.2% Vermont
    2 -35.6% New Hampshire
    3 -42.8% Rhode Island
    23 -33.8% Maine
    28 -36.8% Massachusetts
    43 -28.7% Connecticut
    46 -37.9% New York
    48 -35.7% Virginia
    49 -43.1% North Carolina
    50 -27.6% Oregon

    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES (SA)

    According to the UConn study, Vermont is a terrible place for manufacturers. But every state shown has lost a huge percentage of manufacturing jobs. And Vermont’s losses are less than most of the other states shown, including two of the states reported as having the cheapest unit costs.

    Therefore, it is clear that the rankings are not a useful predictor of manufacturing jobs. Moreover, it is well known that manufacturing job losses are not the result of interstate moves but from moves overseas for cheap labor (having nothing to do with state taxes).

    Thus, Mr. Scott has joined those who (like Mr. Dubie) prefer sound bites to careful analysis and who play the tax cut card regardless of what the data tell us.

    I’m running for State Auditor and this is how I approach research and analysis.

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